Gold prices in India's retail market remained largely stable on April 19, with 24-carat gold at ₹154,900 per 10 grams according to the Indian Bullion Association (IBA). 22-carat gold was priced at ₹141,992 per 10 grams, while silver 999 Fine was at ₹259,210 per kg. The prices reflect the current market conditions as Akshaya Tritiya, traditionally considered auspicious for gold purchases, coincided with the trading day. Based on previous closing levels, gold continues to trade above the critical ₹1.5 lakh per 10 grams milestone that was breached in early 2026. However, MCX gold prices are down more than 20% from their record high, largely due to crude oil price volatility, the dollar's rise, and fading expectations of rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve in the near future.
Gold exchange-traded funds have delivered stellar returns of up to 63% since the last Akshaya Tritiya, according to latest data from LiveMint. Since the festival was celebrated on April 30, 2025, gold ETFs gave an average return of 59.63%. Among the 20 gold ETFs tracked during this period, Tata Gold ETF emerged as the top performer with gains of 60.59%, followed closely by Aditya Birla SL Gold ETF and ICICI Pru Gold ETF at 60.27% and 60.22% respectively. Zerodha Gold ETF rallied 60.12%, while Kotak Gold ETF went up 60.06%. Quantum Gold Fund ETF was the last in the list, gaining 58.55% from April 30, 2025, to April 16, 2026.
Market experts emphasize the importance of maintaining asset-allocation discipline during this rally. Akshat Garg, Head - Research & Product of Choice Wealth, shared with ETMutualFunds that investors should align profit booking with their long-term asset allocation, trimming exposure if gold now exceeds their target of 5-15%, and reallocating to underweight assets like equities or debt to maintain balance without fully exiting the hedge. Vishal Dhawan, Founder & CEO, Plan Ahead Wealth Advisors, told ETMutualFunds that after a very sharp move, tactical profit-booking can make sense if gold has moved meaningfully above the intended portfolio weight. However, he cautioned that for long-term investors, gold is usually held as a strategic diversifier, so exiting solely because returns were strong can defeat the role it plays in cushioning portfolios during stress.
The sharp surge in gold ETF returns has been driven by multiple global factors, including geopolitical tensions, central bank buying, a softer interest rate outlook, and persistent macro uncertainty. According to ETMutualFunds, gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset has strengthened as investors seek protection against volatility in equities and currencies. Akshat Garg noted that central bank buying, massive ETF inflows (especially in India), inflation fears from US tariffs, and global debt pressures have fueled the surge. However, Vishal Dhawan pointed out that valuations do appear more stretched than they were a year ago, at least from a momentum perspective. For long-term investors, continuing SIPs may still be the more disciplined approach rather than trying to time the top after a sharp rally.
In the last six months, gold ETFs have rallied up to 21.19% with Tata Gold ETF being the top performer. In the last nine months, the gain has been up to 55%, and in the current calendar year so far, gold ETFs gained up to nearly 16%, with LIC MF Gold ETF delivering the highest return of 15.50%. Looking ahead, Akshat Garg expects $4,000-$5,000/oz consolidation through 2026-27, backed by policy easing, steady demand, and geopolitical risks maintaining a bullish tilt. Vishal Dhawan noted that the base case still looks constructive, but probably with much more volatility than the recent straight-line move suggests, with key variables likely to be geopolitics, the direction of US real yields, the dollar, central-bank buying, and whether inflation stays sticky enough to keep hedging demand alive.
Market experts are increasingly bullish on gold's prospects, with some suggesting significant upside potential. NS Ramaswamy, Head CRM & Commodities of Ventura Securities, believes there is a strong possibility of MCX gold rate rising to around ₹2 lakh per 10 grams by Akshaya Tritiya next year. He expects MCX gold prices to increase 15% by the end of December 2026 to approximately ₹1,75,000. Mohit Gulati, CIO and managing partner of ITI Growth Opportunities Fund, stated that after a 63% rally, he's more worried about the dollar than gold, and wouldn't rule out gold reaching ₹2 lakh by next Akshaya Tritiya. The Indian gold market has entered a period of structural recalibration as domestic prices breached the critical ₹1.5 lakh per 10 grams milestone in early 2026, with gold touching a peak of around ₹1.8 lakh per 10 grams in January 2026.
