Global food prices experienced a notable decline in October 2026, with the FAO Food Price Index falling 1.6 points or 1.2% from the revised September reading to 133.9 points. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), this decline was primarily driven by cheaper cereals, dairy products and meat, despite a sharp rise in sugar prices. The index remains 5.9% higher than October 2025 but remains 16.4% below its record peak of March 2022. As per the latest FAO data, the decline was mainly driven by lower cereal, dairy and meat prices, which more than offset a sharp increase in sugar prices and a marginal rise in vegetable oil prices. However, this monthly decrease does not mean that every food commodity became cheaper, as movements differed significantly among commodity groups.
The FAO Cereal Price Index dropped 4.5% in October, with wheat prices reversing their four-month upward trend due to subdued international demand and an improving production outlook, particularly in Argentina. As reported by FAO, world wheat prices declined following four consecutive monthly increases, with expectations that restrictions on Black Sea export flows could ease putting additional pressure on prices. However, continued disruptions to logistics in the region limited the decline. Maize prices also softened after touching a three-year high in September, with progress of harvesting in the United States and expectations of ample supplies from major South American exporters contributing to the decline. Rice was the exception, with the FAO All Rice Price Index rising 1.6% due to harvest delays in exporting countries and adverse weather conditions, with higher costs also contributing to the increase. This demonstrates that movements may also differ among products within a broader commodity group, even within the cereal category.
The decline extended to dairy products, with the FAO Dairy Price Index falling 1.1% from September due to lower international prices of butter and cheese supported by ample supplies and subdued buying interest. These declines more than offset further increases in milk powder prices. Meat prices followed a similar trend, with the FAO Meat Price Index falling 1.2% during the month, although it remained marginally above its year-earlier level. Prices of pig, ovine and bovine meats declined in October, while poultry meat prices remained broadly stable. The meat price index fell 1.2% in October, despite remaining above the level recorded in the same period a year earlier. These movements establish that a decline in the overall index does not mean that every food commodity became cheaper, as the dairy and meat sectors showed significant declines while sugar prices continued their upward trajectory.
Sugar prices continued their upward trajectory, with the FAO Sugar Price Index climbing 6.6% from September and standing 28.8% above its year-ago level. October marked the fourth consecutive monthly increase, taking the index to its highest level since December 2024. According to FAO, rainfall-related disruptions to sugarcane harvesting and crushing operations in Brazil's key Centre-South region were the main reason behind the increase, with concerns about production prospects in India, the European Union and Thailand during the 2026/27 season adding to upward pressure. The sugar index recorded the largest increase among the five main groups, reflecting the different pressures within the broader food commodity category. In dairy, the index dropped 1.1%, reflecting lower butter and cheese prices amid ample supply and subdued buyer interest, which outweighed firmer quotations for milk powder.
Vegetable oils posted a more modest gain of 0.3%, supported by increases in soybean and sunflower oil prices that more than offset a decline in rapeseed oil. Soybean oil reached its highest level since late 2022, underpinned by demand from the biofuels sector. In a separate assessment, FAO forecast global cereal production at 2,999 million tonnes in 2026, which would make it the second-highest level on record, although it would remain below the record production level achieved in 2025. Global cereal trade is also expected to contract in the 2026/27 season, with trade volumes projected to fall 3.3% to 507.7 million tonnes, largely due to an expected 8.6% decline in wheat trade. The detailed analysis shows that vegetable oils rose 0.3%, with soybean and sunflower oil prices increasing while rapeseed oil prices fell and palm oil prices were virtually unchanged from September.
