Research from market firm Risilience reveals that the upcoming super El Niño weather event could cause a $342 billion hit to global agricultural output, posing a critical threat to 500 million smallholder farmers worldwide. According to The Independent, scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) confirmed that 2026 would see an El Niño climate phenomenon, characterized by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean that result in changing rainfall patterns across Africa, Asia and Latin America. The forecast suggests this event will become "very strong" by winter, with scenarios showing staple crop prices could surge 50-100% and potential export bans from governments of India, Vietnam and Thailand removing millions of tonnes from global markets. Earlier in June, the Met Office indicated that the El Niño climate pattern could increase the chances of milder, wetter and windier weather in the UK during autumn and early winter, adding to global weather uncertainties. The World Cup 2026 is also facing weather disruptions, with 97 of the 104 matches facing a higher probability of encountering performance-impairing conditions due to extreme heat and weather conditions.
Skymet Weather has warned that India may face one of the strongest El Niño events in decades, with the country already recording a 41% rainfall deficit during June that threatens Kharif sowing and crop yields. According to ET Now, Mahesh Palawat, Vice President of Meteorology and Climate Change at Skymet Weather, noted that while rainfall activity has strengthened along the western coast including Mumbai, large parts of eastern and central India are still awaiting a stronger monsoon push. Areas including parts of Bihar, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, eastern Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan are yet to see widespread rainfall, with monsoon conditions expected to improve across these regions by the end of June. The agency had earlier projected seasonal rainfall at 94% of the long-period average, but is now reviewing its forecast as the rainfall shortfall may persist through the season. States such as Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and parts of Rajasthan could face below-normal rainfall during the season, while eastern and northeastern India, the southern peninsula and the west coast are likely to receive normal or near-normal rainfall.
Agricultural experts are advocating for the adoption of climate-resistant traditional rice varieties to help farmers navigate weather challenges. According to Business Standard, Padma Shri awardee and agricultural scientist Dr Ram Chet Chaudhary emphasized that resilient traditional rice varieties such as Kala Namak can help farmers withstand delayed monsoons and weather-related stress during the kharif season. The expert noted that Kala Namak rice has a distinct capacity to survive and thrive with significantly less water and fertiliser compared to standard varieties, making it particularly suitable for current weather conditions. As The Independent reports, smallholders can be supported with drought-resistant seeds, training schemes, and support towards economic diversification - so long as funding is available to implement these measures. The Save Soil movement has estimated that a typical household could potentially end up paying hundreds of pounds more per year due to degraded soils and climate volatility, highlighting the broader cost implications for consumers beyond farmers. Skymet has advised farmers to remain cautious while planning their crops, especially in areas vulnerable to rainfall shortages, with growers needing to focus on crops that require less water as rainfall activity could weaken again during the second half of July and in August.
UN food agencies have launched a $202 million appeal to shield 8.8 million people from El Niño via anticipatory action interventions ahead of possible climate shocks. As reported by The Independent, Carl Skau, World Food Programme acting executive director, stated that "with El Niño on the horizon, we have a narrow window to act so families are not forced into impossible choices later." The research from Risilience is based on analytics that "combine climate science forecasts with agricultural science and machine learning," covering 11 key commodities including grains, oils, coffee, cocoa, dairy and livestock with a combined anticipated yield loss of up to 14% during the extreme weather event. Aid groups warn that global food crises, already hit hard by plummeting foreign aid flows from wealthy countries, could worsen further with the super El Niño. Campaigners argue that restoring soil health is among the most cost-effective hedges against future shocks, with low-income families who spend more of their budget on food particularly at risk in terms of the price impact.
Campaigners are urging the UK government to accelerate implementation of mandatory human rights and environmental due diligence (HREDD) legislation as the super El Niño threatens global supply chains. According to The Independent, Marie Rumsby, advocacy director at the Fairtrade Foundation, emphasized that "the people feeding and powering the global economy are already experiencing the worst impacts of the climate crisis, despite having done the least to cause it." The UK government launched a review into responsible business conduct policy that was set to see an HREDD announcement by the end of March 2026, but more than two months later, there has been no response. A Department for Business and Trade spokesperson stated that "this government is committed to rooting out forced labour, human rights abuses, exploitative environmental practices, bribery and corruption," with the review progressing at pace. Concerns have also been raised that UK food imports could be coming under further pressure from climate impacts amid speculation that 2027 could become the hottest year on record.
