An El Niño has been declared when waters in the equatorial Pacific rise 0.5 degrees Celsius above their long-term average. According to reports from NDTV, this year's event is expected to be the worst in at least 76 years, combining with global warming to deliver what's being called a 'Super El Niño'. UN Secretary-General António Guterres warned at London Climate Action Week in June that El Niño risks 'blowing the house down' rather than just knocking on the door.
The Super El Niño arrives at a time when global surface air temperatures have increased by around 1.4°C since the pre-industrial era. As reported by NDTV, this combination of natural weather patterns with climate change is expected to deliver worse droughts, bigger wildfires and larger floods, potentially opening a window into what climate change will look like in the future. The effects may already be presenting themselves with parts of Europe experiencing record heat waves and wildfires in Spain and France approaching densely populated areas.
In India, June was its driest in 12 years, while July brought heavy rains to Mumbai, killing at least 13 people. According to NDTV, in the Himalayan region and across to the west coast, flash floods have killed dozens more and displaced thousands. In East Asia, Typhoon Dolphin has flooded parts of central China, with the region's storm season shaping up to be one of the most intense on record. Waterways such as the Rhine and Danube are running low, hampering transport and energy production.
The worldwide financial toll of this year's event is expected to exceed $4 trillion through 2030, said Wenju Cai, a professor at Xiamen University. As reported by NDTV, such costs will far outpace extremely strong El Niño events in 2016 and 1998, both because the global economy has grown and because of the greater intensity. The costs will be far more dramatic than previous extreme El Niño events due to the combination with global warming effects.
