Gold is currently trading around $4,185 internationally and ₹1,45,511 per 10 grams in India, representing a 25% decline from the all-time high of $5,602 per ounce and 17% below the January peak of ₹1,76,306 per 10 grams. According to The Financial Express, the $4,100-$4,110 zone has held through several tests over the past week, potentially serving as a base or pause before another leg lower. However, experts warn that gold needs to close and hold above $4,300 for confirmation, with the $4,000 level serving as the next major support if the current support zone breaks.
Bank of America expects gold to trade below $4,000 per ounce over the next three months, with the bank forecasting an average of $4,000 per ounce in the fourth quarter of 2026. According to reports from Bank of America, the bank's demand tracker shows purchases by key buyers fell 16.6% year-over-year, with Indian imports dropping 77.8% while Chinese imports rose 39.3%. Gold currently trades around $4,155 after hotter US inflation data, sitting roughly 27% below its late-January all-time high of $5,598. The bank's near-term view is based on weaker physical demand despite continued investment interest, leaving gold exposed if rates stay elevated, the dollar remains firm, or buyers fail to defend the $4,000 area.
Despite gold's decline, global gold ETFs saw record quarterly inflows of $31 billion in the quarter ended September, even as prices dipped significantly. According to The Financial Express, central banks continued their buying spree with net purchases of 39 tonnes in August, with September purchases hitting the highest monthly level since November 2024 at 63 tonnes. The World Gold Council reports that central banks are buying even more, with about 63 tonnes recorded so far this month. As Samit Guha from MMTC-PAMP notes, gold continues to receive support from central bank demand, investor interest, and its role as a trusted store of value, particularly during periods of economic or geopolitical uncertainty.
The Federal Reserve raised rates to 3.75%-4% in September, with officials signaling one more hike this year. September consumer prices rose 3.7% year-over-year, above the 3.6% forecast, while core inflation reached 2.6%, also beating expectations. As reported by The Financial Express, rate hike expectations for the December FOMC meeting stand above 70%, with the increasing market probabilities of further rate hikes in 2027 holding back gold prices. However, the recent equity market sell-off has provided some support, with AI-led and big tech stocks being battered on Wall Street, pushing investors toward safe-haven assets like gold and bonds. The US 10-year Treasury yield stayed below 5.1% on Friday after falling sharply, though the longer-duration 30-year yield edged up.
The daily chart shows gold has traded mostly under a bearish Supertrend since January, with a head-and-shoulders pattern forming between August and September. The neckline near $4,330 broke in mid-September, projecting a target near $3,950. According to Dr. Renisha Chainani from Augmont, the main support is the June–July base around $3,940-$3,950, which works out to roughly ₹1,42,000 per 10 grams on MCX. If the Fed signals more than one more hike and the 10-year yield moves toward 5.5%, prices could break that base, potentially falling to $3,800 or about ₹1,36,000-₹1,37,000. Anindya Banerjee from Kotak Securities notes that a full recovery would need a rally of about 34% in under three months, which appears unlikely given current conditions.
