The SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) has experienced a record-breaking $14.4 billion outflow since March, representing the largest monthly withdrawal on record for the largest physically backed gold exchange-traded fund. According to boerse-global.de, the trust's net assets have shrunk to roughly $128.61 billion as institutional investors flee the precious metal amid rising real rates and hawkish Federal Reserve policy. The fund recorded a $446.8 million inflow last week but this single positive week has failed to reverse the broader pattern of disinvestment that began when the Fed hardened its monetary stance.
Gold exchange-traded funds experienced an unusual market balance last week as every dollar of inflow was matched by an outflow. According to data from the World Gold Council, total inflows reached $1.668 billion while outflows stood at $1.67 billion, resulting in a net balance of just $1.6 million. The precious metal was trading around $4,021.30 per ounce at the start of the week, barely changed from Friday's close, after a modest 1.03% daily gain. Gold remains 28.53% below its all-time high of $5,626.80 hit on January 29, 2026, and has fallen 7.19% since the start of the year. Current trading shows gold at $3,992.55 and silver at $55.44 — both at or near multi-month lows.
Investment and exit patterns varied significantly across regions, with North America recording $365 million in exits followed by Asia at $173 million and Europe contributing $530 million in investments. Country-wise, the United States saw $507 million in exits while Japan recorded $261 million in outflows. On the positive side, UK investors invested $370 million in gold ETFs, followed by Canadians at $141 million and China at $88 million. As reported by the World Gold Council, this represents an unusual trend where war in West Asia pushed prices down instead of up, with oil surging nearly 13% on US-Iran clashes.
Federal Reserve policy expectations significantly influenced market sentiment, with US Fed Chair Kevin Warsh sounding hawkish in Congressional testimony and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan openly pushing for another rate hike. According to Augmont research, markets now see roughly a 51% chance of a September hike — down from about 60% at the start of July — creating substantial pressure on metals throughout the week. The June dot plot showed nine of 18 participants projecting at least one hike before year-end, eight projecting no change, and one projecting a cut. However, softer-than-expected US inflation data has largely ruled out a July rate increase, yet Fed Chair Kevin Warsh reiterated his commitment to restoring price stability.
The oil shock is hitting gold twice — through interest rate expectations and production costs. Brent stood at $85.92 on July 14, its highest since June 15, after gaining 9.6% the previous day. Escalation between the United States and Iran has driven oil prices higher and reinforced concerns that interest rates could remain elevated for longer. Transit figures show only 57 crossings recorded from Friday through Sunday — a drop of more than 50% against the prior week. The same oil price that is pressuring gold through rate expectations is pressuring producers a second time through the cost side, with energy being one of the largest single line items in an AISC calculation. GDX was trading at $74.82 on July 14, against a 52-week range of $50.45 to $117.18, with year-to-date declines of 8.61% for juniors and 8.2% for seniors.
