The flow of Indian technology professionals to the US is slowing significantly, while the number returning to India is rising amid visa uncertainty and weaker hiring conditions. According to a report by Xpheno, the number of tech professionals who have returned to India has reached 7,300 so far this year, with the trend showing a clear upward trajectory. In 2025, this figure reached 15,100, while in 2024 it stood at 9,800, representing a substantial year-on-year increase in return migration.
Simultaneously, the number of professionals moving to the US has been declining significantly. Year-to-date, the number of people moving to the US stood at 9,100, compared to 21,200 in 2025, which was up from 17,600 in 2024. The gap in the net talent balance — exits minus returnees — has been shrinking since 2023, indicating that the appeal of technology jobs in the US over the past three decades has been affected by changes in the global job market.
The US administration under President Donald Trump has implemented significant changes to H-1B visa policies, including a $100,000 fee on all new H-1B visa applications and preference for applicants with advanced degrees and higher salaries. These measures have led to a sharp drop in visa registrations, which fell 38% to 211,600 for the 2027 financial year from 343,981 a year earlier. The administration has also announced that foreign nationals seeking lawful permanent residence should generally apply from outside the country through consular processing rather than adjusting status within the US.
The reverse migration trend coincides with challenging conditions in India's technology sector. According to Business Standard, India's active job market demand outlook hit a 28-month low in June, with 93,000 open roles, down 17% from 112,000 a year earlier. The IT services cohort, the key talent consumer, saw demand drop 16% sequentially to an active volume of 36,000 openings, down 31% compared with last year. However, global capability centres (GCCs) have shown resilience with a 31% rise in active technology demand during the same period.
Kamal Karanth, co-founder of Xpheno, noted that the scale and pattern of tech talent movement between India and the US have been changing rapidly over the past three years. He emphasized that the returnees' volume is expected to exceed previous year's count and further drop the net talent balance. The technology sector continues to navigate sluggish growth and macroeconomic headwinds, with hiring activity declining after the hiring buoyancy of 2021, reflecting the sector's ongoing volatility and dependence on global developments.
