Gates warns AI transition could be 'most turbulent times in history'

Gates has identified three primary threats from AI development that he warns the industry is deliberately downplaying. According to his latest essay, the first threat is permanent job losses affecting entry-level and mid-level roles across sales, customer service, software development, and legal support. The second threat involves easier development of bioweapons, where just a few people with access to advanced AI could develop new pathogens. The third danger focuses on psychological and social harm from addictive chatbots, with studies from Stanford and Carnegie Mellon showing that the more intensely people use these AI companions, the worse they feel. Gates specifically warns about the loss of critical thinking skills in an era of deepfakes and tailored disinformation, noting that 'AI companions that never disagree and are always available carry real addiction potential.'

Gates has introduced a comprehensive proposal to reserve approximately 40% of jobs for humans through what he calls 'Human Reserved' positions. According to his latest essay, these protected roles would include childcare and jury service as clear examples, with education and healthcare representing a mix where protected workers would use AI to extend their output. The concept would take two forms - some roles would remain human permanently, while others would provide temporary protection for workers who are too far into their careers to retrain. 'We might set something aside as Human Reserved for economic reasons. For example, we may do it because allowing machines to take over a certain role will displace a large number of people who can't easily change jobs,' Gates explained. He compared the idea to nature reserves, noting that societies could build on protected land but choose not to, because the loss would outweigh the gain. Such roles could include caregiving and other jobs involving deeply personal human interaction, where replacing workers with AI could be particularly difficult or undesirable. In his latest essay, Gates specifically cited receiving an incurable disease diagnosis from a robot as an example where technical capability should not replace human care, writing 'There's no technical reason why it couldn't, yet it shouldn't.' His thinking was shaped in part by the care his late father received after developing Alzheimer's disease, noting that paid caregivers understood his father's needs even when he struggled to express them. 'There's no technical reason why it couldn't, yet it shouldn't,' he wrote, emphasizing that 'no robot could or should have done' the care that was 'irreplaceably human'.

While most job fallout from AI has centered on white-collar work, Gates warned that blue-collar workers will eventually be affected too, as robots become cheaper and more capable. In his latest essay, he wrote that 'Many Americans I talk to don't realize how fast dexterous robots are advancing,' despite flashy demonstrations that may confuse people with viral videos of robots dancing badly. 'Smart' robots could start competing with people on some physical tasks in construction and hospitality 'by the end of the decade,' Gates predicted. He noted that humanoid robots have not yet been widely adopted in factories or service work because of limitations in their underlying AI systems and a lack of dexterity in their hands. 'Waiting until people are already displaced or underemployed will be too late,' Gates wrote, emphasizing that 'AI is a structural challenge to the way our economy is organized, and it requires thinking and action now.' Gates points to a Stanford study as proof that the shift has already begun, showing that employment among young workers in the most exposed jobs has dropped noticeably, while older colleagues have been spared so far. He warned that robots and AI combined can create a vicious cycle, especially concerning young people who will enter a workforce with fewer entry-level openings. 'The biggest shift for workers will happen when AI provides nearly error-free work. At that point, it will be able to function on its own without a human checking in on it, and companies will have every economic incentive to let it,' Gates explained, adding that 'This will lead to a fundamental change in how we think about work, income, and economic security.'

To address the growing concerns about AI's unintended consequences, **Gates has backed stronger government intervention, including a new tax on AI use, sometimes referred to as a 'token tax'. As reported by The New York Times, the proposed measure would increase the cost for businesses that use AI to replace human workers. According to Gates, the money raised could then be channelled towards supporting people who lose their jobs because of automation. He explained that employers currently pay payroll taxes on staff but deduct equipment costs, which tilts hiring decisions toward automation. 'The tax system nudges you toward replacing people with machines,' he said. Gates has also called for international AI institutions modeled on nuclear weapons control, rejecting industry self-regulation. 'Self-regulation on the most dangerous tool ever invented? No, thanks!' he stated. He specifically proposes a token tax on AI use and robots, noting that 'Hire a person today and you pay payroll taxes. Buy a robot and you can write it off right away. So the tax system all but pushes companies to swap people for machines.' In his latest blog post, Gates acknowledged that geopolitical and economic incentives are pushing too hard for full speed ahead, but he would support anyone with a credible plan to slow AI advances globally. He warned that AI systems themselves already occasionally act in ways their designers had not planned, as the AI models become more powerful, the billionaire feels they could begin to act against human interests, and 'we could lose control.'

Gates isn't alone in arguing that the AI boom needs fundamental changes to regulation. Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei has already warned about AI-generated bioweapons and predicted that up to half of entry-level jobs in office work could disappear, with unemployment potentially climbing to 10 to 20 percent. Amodei also floated the token tax proposal. The call for international AI institutions has precedents, with researchers Gary Marcus and Anka Reuel proposing a global, nonprofit AI agency in 2023, modeled on the International Atomic Energy Agency. A US report published in 2024 documented anonymous safety concerns from employees at leading AI companies, including worries about their leaders' incentives. Gates acknowledges a possible conflict of interest, noting he still has financial ties to the tech industry, though the profits flow to the Gates Foundation*. 'It's bad for us, for the next trillion we're trying to raise,'** he said, referring to the industry's reluctance to discuss AI dangers publicly. His latest warnings come as several analysts ring the alarm over a possible AI bubble, while others express excessive optimism about the technology's potential.