The benchmark indices showed signs of recovery after three straight sessions of sharp corrections, with the Nifty 50 falling 1.55 percent as participants remained cautious amid the US-Iran conflict. However, market sentiment improved significantly with S&P 500 futures up 27 points and trading 0.4% above fair value, while Nasdaq 100 futures gained 138 points and were 0.6% above fair value. According to latest reports, the market cap-weighted S&P 500, S&P MidCap 400, and Russell 2000 are all down only 0.9% this week, demonstrating resilience despite ongoing geopolitical tensions. President Trump's announcement that the U.S. Development Finance Corporation has been directed to provide insurance to carriers operating in the Persian Gulf after private insurers pulled coverage due to the Iran conflict, along with Treasury Secretary Bessent's indication of series of announcements to mitigate oil price rises, helped temper market volatility. India VIX surged 23.41 percent to 21.14, reaching the highest closing level since May 9, 2025, signaling rising risk and heightened nervousness among market participants.
Chennai Petroleum Corporation (CMP: ₹999.9) shows strong bullish momentum with a higher highs and higher lows formation on the daily chart. As reported by Moneycontrol, the stock has closed with a gain of over 6 percent, outperforming broader indices and protecting its lows for six consecutive trading sessions. Balrampur Chini Mills (CMP: ₹491.7) has broken out above the resistance zone of ₹470-475 with the highest volumes since September 27, 2024. National Aluminium Company (NALCO) (CMP: ₹373.5) has surged nearly 3 percent and delivered a breakout above its consolidation range of ₹334-364.
Coal India (CMP: ₹435.15) is showing strong bullish momentum and is on the verge of a fresh breakout from a falling trendline, firmly sustaining above all key moving averages. According to Moneycontrol, the stock is well positioned to extend its rally towards the 52-week high near ₹460. JB Chemicals and Pharmaceuticals (CMP: ₹2,051.8) gave a flag-and-pole breakout on February 23 and is outperforming its benchmark Nifty Pharma. The technical structure suggests the stock is well placed to extend its upward trajectory towards the ₹2,205 level.
Bharat Heavy Electricals (BHEL) (CMP: ₹247.9) has broken down below its 200-DMA placed near ₹252 with above-average volumes, reinforcing the bearish undertone. As reported by Moneycontrol, momentum indicators reflect weakness with the RSI falling below 40 and the MACD generating a fresh sell crossover. REC (CMP: ₹328.75) has slipped below its prior swing low of ₹333 and is trading well below key moving averages, suggesting the prevailing trend remains firmly negative with a target of ₹300.
The Nifty 50 decisively broke the February low and closed 1.55 percent lower on March 4 after another gap-down opening amid rising tensions between the US-Israel bloc and Iran. The index managed to defend the 24,300 level (which coincides with the August 2025 low and the long upward-sloping support trendline adjoining the March 2020 and April 2025 lows) on a closing basis. If the index breaks and sustains well below the said zone, a fall towards 24,050–24,000 — the next crucial support area — cannot be ruled out. However, 24,600 (Monday's low and Wednesday's high) is expected to act as the immediate key resistance, followed by 24,800. The Nifty Put-Call ratio (PCR) declined to 0.95 on March 4, compared to a 0.99 in the previous session, indicating traders are selling more Put options than Call options, generally reflecting a bearish mood in the market.
