Prabhudas Lilladher has reiterated its 'Buy' rating on NCC with a target price of ₹195 in its research report dated May 16, 2026. The brokerage's valuation uses a 15x FY28E EPS multiple and approximately 1.2x projected book value for FY28, aligning with the last 10 years historical average. Currently, NCC's price-to-earnings ratio is approximately 13.5-14.04 times its trailing twelve months' earnings, with a market capitalization around ₹9,500-10,000 crore. The general analyst view favors a 'Buy' with average 12-month price targets between ₹199.75 and ₹205.53, suggesting potential gains of 20-39%.
NCC reported mixed Q4FY26 results with net profit declining 18.8% YoY to ₹206.02 crore compared to ₹253.82 crore in the same period last year, though this followed a strong 68.2% increase from Q3 FY26. Revenue from operations remained stable with a slight 1.04% rise YoY to ₹6,253.96 crore. The company's profit margin for the quarter was 8.4%, which was lower on a YoY basis but broadly in line with Street and brokerage expectations. Despite the profit dip, the stock faced market pressure, trading between ₹152-160 on May 18, 2026, far below its 52-week high of ₹242.15. The company delivered meaningful balance sheet improvement with net debt reducing to ₹17bn versus ₹28bn in Q3FY26, while operating cash flow remained positive.
According to Prabhudas Lilladher's analysis, consolidated FY26 order inflows crossed ₹319 billion, including a sizeable ₹115 billion mining order. This took the total order book to a robust ~₹830 billion, representing approximately 4.8x TTM revenue. The brokerage noted that execution of key projects has started gaining traction, supported by mobilisation advances already received. While total FY26 order inflows were down 3% compared to FY25, the overall order book value grew by a substantial 16% to ₹83,004 crore, up from ₹71,568 crore in FY25.
Despite positive operational developments, management refrained from providing FY27 guidance, citing geopolitical uncertainties or the possibility of government austerity measures. As reported by Prabhudas Lilladher, this conservative stance is viewed as largely appropriate given current market conditions. The brokerage cut FY27E/FY28E EPS estimates by 8%/2% respectively, factoring in some near-term margin pressure. NCC's stock has fallen over 29% in the past year, indicating that the market may already be considering these challenges. While NCC's P/E ratio is lower than peers like Larsen & Toubro (28.06x) or PNC Infratech (20.84x), its recent profit decline and cautious outlook could deter investors.
