Motilal Oswal has assigned a Neutral rating to NTPC with a target price of ₹378 in its research report dated September 06, 2026. According to the brokerage's analysis, while the company demonstrates strong fundamentals, sluggish near-term earnings growth has led to a cautious stance on the stock. The target price represents a potential upside from current levels, reflecting the brokerage's balanced view on the power sector giant.
Motilal Oswal identifies significant growth opportunities in the power sector, citing the sector's ~86GW thermal capacity addition requirement. The brokerage expects stronger-than-expected power demand growth, with the base case now at ~6% versus ~5% earlier. As reported by Motilal Oswal, the ISTS transmission charge waiver for renewable energy projects is being phased out over the next four years, which should improve the relative attractiveness of thermal tariffs compared to renewable tariffs.
NTPC is positioned for significant capacity expansion with the ability to add approximately 15GW capacity without retiring existing units. According to Motilal Oswal's analysis, existing thermal plants could achieve PLF of up to ~80% during strong demand conditions. The company's total capacity addition guidance remains unchanged at ~9.5GW in FY27, including ~8GW of renewables, though the renewable target carries some downside risk.
Motilal Oswal maintains confidence in NTPC's long-term prospects despite the cautious near-term stance. As reported by the brokerage, while the company demonstrates strong fundamentals, the current sluggish earnings growth environment has influenced their rating decision. The Neutral rating reflects a balanced view on NTPC's positioning within the evolving power sector landscape, with potential upside opportunities emerging from the sector's capacity expansion requirements and improving thermal tariff dynamics.
