According to CNBC TV18, Gautam Shah, Founder of Goldilocks Global Research, expects the Nifty to remain range-bound between 23,500 and 24,600, signalling a consolidation phase after the recent rally. Shah stated that markets are going back to normal business, with earnings, consumption trends, artificial intelligence disruption and continued foreign institutional investors (FII) selling expected to drive markets from here. He also flagged crude oil as a key constraint, with elevated prices likely to cap upside and trigger selling pressure at higher levels. Latest developments show Nifty finding resistance at the 89 EMA on the daily timeframe, with the rally getting arrested there, leading sellers to push the index below 24,000. On the higher end, 24,200 would be the immediate resistance, above which market sentiment might improve.
As reported by CNBC TV18, Shah pointed out that leadership is shifting away from large caps, with limited contribution from heavyweights like IT and Reliance, making it difficult for benchmark indices to sustain a sharp rally. He noted that recent gains across global and domestic markets indicate that both geopolitical risks and the possibility of a resolution are already priced in, with the worst of geopolitical news flow potentially already in the price. Markets have rallied sharply over the past few weeks and are now showing limited reaction to fresh developments. The IT index has suddenly become the worst performer again with 10% weekly loss amid weaker-than-expected guidance given by software exporters, with the index finding rejection at the 50 EMA on the daily timeframe and the RSI entering a bearish crossover.
According to the report, Shah highlighted that opportunities lie in mid, small and micro caps, which have already seen strong momentum and could continue to outperform. He identified PSU, metals, energy, capital goods and real estate as key sectors, with energy and power emerging as a dominant theme. Shah advised focusing on areas with lower foreign ownership, stating that investors should be in stocks and sectors where FII selling is limited, signalling a shift towards domestic-driven segments. Latest technical analysis from The Economic Times identifies selective short-term trading opportunities in NMDC, RBL, and Piramal Pharma based on emerging technical momentum, with NMDC showing uptrend after large consolidation breakout and RBL benefiting from improved sentiment following consolidation breakout.
As reported by CNBC TV18, Shah said crude prices are likely to stay elevated, with a base around $80 per barrel and a ceiling of $110–115 per barrel. The earlier range of $65–70 per barrel has now shifted higher. On metals, he said gold and silver have stabilised after a correction and could move higher, with gold seen at $5,200–5,300 per ounce and silver near $100 per ounce, advising investors to stay invested. The Economic Times notes that rising crude and a falling rupee magnified the weakness in Indian equities, with crude prices remaining a key constraint for market performance.
Despite the challenging market conditions, technical analysts identify selective opportunities for short-term traders. The Economic Times recommends buying NMDC at 89.29 with target 95 and stop loss 86, RBL at 321.40 with target 340 and stop loss 310, and Piramal Pharma at 165.50 with target 174 and stop loss 160. The analysis suggests that while the broader market faces bearish pressure with Nifty IT witnessing a return of bears and RIL remaining weak for the last few days, specific stocks with strong technical setups offer potential for selective gains. The focus remains on domestic-driven sectors and stocks with lower foreign ownership as markets navigate the current consolidation phase.
