The Nifty declined 2.09% for the week, ending at 23,398.10 after trading in a wide 658.60-point range with sustained selling pressure. According to The Hindu BusinessLine, Nifty and Sensex were down over 2% each while Nifty Bank fell 1.33% for the week. The index has violated the crucial 23,900–24,000 support zone and settled not far above the weekly low. The technical structure has deteriorated significantly, with Nifty slipping below its 100-week moving average at 24,401 and remaining below the 50-week MA at 24,673. As per The Hindu BusinessLine, resistances are there to cap the upside, so any rise from current levels can be capped, with expectations of further declines in Nifty, Sensex, and Nifty Bank.
Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) is recommended as a buy with a target of ₹5,350 and stop-loss at ₹4,810, according to the report. The stock has maintained underlying strength after defending the key weekly long-term average and staged a strong recovery, breaking out of a broader triangular consolidation. CG Power and Industrial Solutions Limited is also recommended as a buy with a target of ₹995 and stop-loss at ₹890. The stock found support near the 50% retracement level and broke out above the declining trend line, showing a steady higher-top, higher-bottom formation. However, Hindustan Unilever Limited is recommended as a sell with a target of ₹1,870 and stop-loss at ₹1,980, as the FMCG sector continues to underperform and the stock is trading below all major moving averages.
According to the latest technical analysis, Nifty50 is trading in the lower range of Bollinger bands with upper band at 24,542 and lower at 23,706, while middle bands are positioned at 23,915 and 24,333. The index is currently below the 23,968.28 crucial level and showing negative momentum across multiple indicators. Weekly RSI stands at 39.93 and remains below the neutral 50 mark, indicating neutral conditions against price. Weekly MACD is bullish and above the signal line, but sits on the verge of a negative crossover as indicated by a narrowing Histogram. The lower Bollinger Band is placed at 23,286, almost coinciding with the week's low of 23,231, making this region an important near-term technical reference. The Force Index is moving in negative zone, confirming selling momentum for short term, though selling momentum appears to be weakening according to recent analysis.
Sectoral participation remained broadly negative, with IT emerging as the biggest drag amid rising US bond yields and concerns over Federal Reserve rate outlook. As reported by The Economic Times, realty, financials and FMCG also edged lower, while select defence, metal and energy-related stocks showed relative resilience. The Relative Rotation Graph analysis shows Nifty Auto, Realty, and Media Indices inside the leading quadrant, but barring Auto, the other two are seen pairing on their relative momentum against the broader market. Nifty Pharma and Midcap Index are inside the weakening quadrant, with Midcap 100 showing improving relative momentum. Energy, Infrastructure, and PSE Indices are in the lagging quadrant but showing good improvement in relative momentum against the broader Nifty 500 Index.
The coming week will be truncated, with Monday, September 14 being a trading holiday on account of Ganesh Chaturthi; trading will therefore resume on Tuesday. A positive but cautious start is expected as Nifty adjusts to the global trade setup. Resistance levels are expected at 23,600 and 23,850, while supports are likely to come in at 23,230 and 23,000. According to The Hindu BusinessLine, immediate support is in the 23,250-23,200 region for Nifty, with a rise from here and break above 23,450 potentially triggering a relief rise to 23,700. However, a break above 23,700 is less likely, and the index can expect to turn down again from around 23,700 and fall back to 23,200. Eventually, Nifty is expected to break 23,200 and fall to 22,600-22,500, which can happen either from current levels or after a corrective rise to 23,700. The approach for the coming week should remain defensive and selective, with fresh buying highly selective and preferably restricted to stocks displaying strong relative strength.
