The Nifty has declined approximately 1% during the week and is currently testing the crucial 24,000-24,100 support cluster, with analysts now identifying 24,030-24,000 as the key support zone. According to Sudeep Shah of SBI Securities, the 24,030-24,000 zone is expected to act as a key support area for the Nifty, with the rising trendline of the upward-sloping channel positioned around these levels. However, a decisive breakdown below the 24,000 mark could accelerate selling pressure and trigger a deeper correction towards 23,850. As per LKP Securities' Rupak De, the index has been falling below 24,300 but has found support above the 50EMA. The index slipped below its 50-day and 100-day EMAs on Tuesday and is now trading below all its key moving averages, indicating continued weakness. The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) stood at 44.67 and continued to trend lower, indicating that bearish momentum is gradually strengthening. A decisive break below 24,000 could push the benchmark into a short-term bearish phase, with recovery potential targeting 24,700 and higher levels.
De expects the Nifty Auto and PSU Bank indices to lead market performance in the coming week, remaining strong on weekly charts despite rough trends across most indices. Conversely, the FMCG and Nifty Energy sectors are likely to remain under pressure in the coming days. The Nifty Healthcare and Nifty Auto sectors outperformed on Tuesday, while Nifty IT and Nifty Realty witnessed the sharpest declines. Hitesh Rathi of Angel One noted that immediate resistance is now likely to be found in the 24,250-24,300 band, followed by stronger resistance at 24,400. The Nifty has failed to surpass the previous session's high for the 11th consecutive trading session, highlighting the prevailing weakness in the market structure. On the upside, the 24,280-24,300 zone remains a crucial resistance area for the index, with Shah noting that as long as the Nifty continues to trade below 24,300, the overall market bias is likely to remain bearish. A sustained move above this resistance zone could provide some relief to the market structure, but until then, rallies may continue to face selling pressure.
Bank Nifty ended the session marginally lower after opening with a mild gap-down near the 57,331 mark, but continued to hold above the crucial 57,200-57,100 support zone, keeping the broader recovery structure intact. The index is currently trading between its 20-day and 50-day exponential moving averages (EMAs), making this zone important for the near-term technical outlook. Sustaining above these support levels will be crucial to prevent further downside and preserve the ongoing recovery structure. According to Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, a decisive break below 57,000 could weaken the broader technical setup and invite fresh selling pressure. On the upside, the 57,500-57,600 zone remains the immediate resistance area, with a sustained move above this range potentially strengthening buying momentum and pushing Bank Nifty towards the stronger 57,800-58,000 resistance zone.
MCX has emerged as a strong technical opportunity after gaining more than 11% over the last week, with a consolidation breakout on the weekly chart and price moving above the 20-week EMA. The stock looks positive in the short term with potential to rise towards ₹3,200-3,300, while support is placed at ₹2,750. Havells presents a flag pattern breakout opportunity at ₹1,298, with target price of ₹1,350 and support at ₹1,268. ELGI Equipments shows falling trendline breakout potential at ₹609.50, targeting ₹640 with support at ₹590. Himadri Speciality Chemical has given a consolidation breakout at ₹781, targeting ₹815 with support at ₹760.
De recommends a buy-on-dips strategy for the short to medium term, with the index remaining within a rising channel until the 24,000 level is decisively broken. For individual stocks, he favors MCX for its technical strength, Havells for its flag pattern breakout, ELGI Equipments for its trendline breakout, and Himadri Speciality Chemical for its consolidation breakout. Among major stocks, TCS has fallen around 4% amid N Chandra's resignation as Tata Sons Chairman, forming a bearish engulfing pattern with potential support at ₹2,350. However, overall sentiment could favour the bears as the index continues to lose bullish momentum, with the fall potentially extending towards 24,050-24,000 where initial support is likely to emerge. According to Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services, Indian equities are likely to remain under pressure in the near term as elevated crude oil prices, US-Iran tensions and weak global cues continue to weigh on market sentiment.
