Domestic benchmark indices opened higher on Thursday, 5 September, snapping a four-session losing streak as easing expectations of a US Federal Reserve rate hike and calming US-Iran tensions lifted global markets. According to latest market updates, the Nifty 50 gained 70.75 points or 0.30% to 23,985.20, while the Sensex rose 223.06 points or 0.29% to 76,793.41 as of 10:31 AM. The recovery came after US President Donald Trump played down the prospect of a prolonged conflict with Iran, easing concerns over geopolitical risks that had weighed on markets in recent sessions.
According to CME FedWatch data reported by CNBC, the probability of a rate hike at the Fed's mid-September meeting has crossed 50% to nearly 56% following Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech. The shift represents a significant change from before Warsh's speech, when odds that the Fed would keep rates unchanged in September were nearly 70%. Multiple market platforms now reflect this repricing, with Kalshi traders assigning 48% probability to a quarter-point increase, Polymarket traders indicating 49% odds, and Fed funds futures traders seeing nearly 56% chance of a quarter-point hike. Warsh's remarks emphasized that better-than-expected summer inflation readings did not demonstrate that underlying trends had meaningfully improved, requiring the central bank to have confidence that inflation was moving toward its objective clearly and quickly enough.
Banking stocks emerged as the top performers with Nifty PSU Bank rising around 1.7% and Nifty Realty gaining more than 2%. According to latest market data, ICICI Bank, Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone, and Axis Bank were the top gainers on the Nifty 50. The broader market also reflected improving sentiment, with Nifty Smallcap 100 up around 1%, indicating renewed participation beyond frontline stocks. Financial services stocks benefited from optimism around improved liquidity conditions after foreign currency inflows through RBI-supported measures, while Nifty Media also traded firm.
Mid and small-cap indices witnessed strong buying interest, with Nifty MidCap index advancing 0.29% and Nifty SmallCap index gaining 0.82%. This broader market participation indicates renewed confidence beyond large-cap stocks, as reported by market updates. RBL Bank gained sharply after raising foreign currency funds, boosting investor confidence around liquidity and margins. Adani Ports moved higher by around 1.6%, supported by buying interest in large-cap infrastructure names, while HDFC Bank gained over 1%, helping the banking index maintain momentum.
According to Chandan Taparia, Head Derivatives & Technicals, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd, reported by LiveMint, the maximum call OI is at 24,000 then 24,100 strike, while maximum put OI is at 23,500 then 24,000 strike. Call writing is seen at 24,000 then 23,950 strike, and put writing at 24,000 then 23,900 strike. Option data suggests a broader trading range between 23,400 to 24,300 zones with an immediate range between 23,600 to 24,100 levels. Chandan Taparia has recommended three stocks to buy today, with IDFC First Bank recommended at ₹92.75 target and RBL Bank suggested at ₹430 target.
