India's defence exports are positioned for significant expansion, with Ashika Equities' Jyoti Gupta forecasting growth to ₹75,000-80,000 crore by FY30. According to CNBC TV18, this projection represents a substantial increase from current levels of ₹38,000 crore and outpaces earlier projections. Gupta noted that while she does not expect exports to reach ₹1 lakh crore by then, the industry is on track for strong growth driven by growing demand from the Middle East and Europe. The global shift away from putting soldiers on frontlines, driven both by political pressure and battlefield inefficiency, is creating massive demand for drone technology, both offensive and defensive.
A potential BrahMos missile deal with the UAE could serve as a major milestone, opening opportunities across Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries and benefiting companies such as BEL, BDL, Data Patterns and Astra Microwave. As reported by CNBC TV18, Gupta emphasized that the opportunity extends far beyond a single order, stating 'This Brahmos opportunity is just not about selling a missile system, it is about exporting India's technological capability, strengthening strategic partnerships and creating a globally competitive defence manufacturing system'. A successful deal with the UAE could help Indian defence companies secure additional contracts across GCC countries, with benefits extending to companies across the defence ecosystem including Bharat Electronics (BDL), Data Patterns (India) (BEL), Astra Microwave Products and BEML.
Private-sector participation in India's defence industry is experiencing significant growth, with current participation at around 24% and expected to rise to nearly 30% by FY30 as more companies enter areas such as electronic warfare, defence systems and advanced technologies. According to CNBC TV18, Gupta highlighted that drones and UAVs represent areas where the private sector has been innovative and is coming up very strongly. The Operation Sindoor demonstration showcased the capabilities of Indian private defence startups, with these companies already battle-tested domestically positioned to meet the growing global demand for drone technology. Among listed defence companies, Gupta's preferred picks are BEL and BEML, which she believes are well placed to benefit from India's expanding defence manufacturing and export ambitions.
Gulf nations present substantial growth potential for Indian defence exports, with Gupta noting that the Middle East remains one of the world's largest defence-spending regions. According to CNBC TV18, she believes a successful deal with the UAE could help Indian defence companies secure additional contracts across Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, with Bharat Dynamics for a wide range of products and systems. The strong relationships between India and Gulf countries are expected to act as a significant boost for defence exports to the region, with Gupta emphasizing that 'the opportunities is much larger than just the United GCC countries. Europe is also a big partner in terms of defence exports'. The benefits would not be limited to missile manufacturers, with companies across the defence ecosystem expected to gain from these strategic partnerships.
While Gupta remains positive on the sector's long-term prospects, she cautioned that valuations have already risen sharply after the recent rally in defence stocks. According to CNBC TV18, she noted that future returns will depend on companies delivering strong earnings growth and executing on their order books. Despite these valuation concerns, she maintains optimism about the sector's fundamentals, emphasizing that 'the earnings would decide the valuations going forward'. The defence sector is expected to see increased public market activity as companies seek funding for their long development cycles, with the IPO pipeline over the next year-and-a-half to have a lot of defence-related startups from the private sector.
