According to Bernstein's latest India Solar PV report, Tata Power emerges as the preferred pick among major solar players, earning an 'Outperform' rating with a target price of ₹430, implying 18.8% upside from current levels. The brokerage's analysis emphasizes that India's solar manufacturing story is moving from capacity announcements to the tougher question of what value should be attached to operational plants. Bernstein estimates EPS of ₹14.91 for FY27 and ₹17.26 for FY28 for Tata Power, with corresponding P/E estimates of 24.3 times and 21 times respectively. The company is assessed through its earnings profile rather than manufacturing capacity metrics, reflecting its different composition of power and renewable-energy operations.
According to Bernstein, the historical valuation arbitrage between large and small domestic solar equipment players has compressed as market multiples rationalised over the past year. The valuation gap across Indian solar photovoltaic (PV) manufacturers has largely closed, with market pricing now broadly aligned for companies with operational or near-commissioning solar cell capacities. Among the solar PV pack, Bernstein singled out Premier Energies for offering superior execution visibility, noting that its manufacturing plant is already operating in the trial phase. However, the report's assessment reveals a significant gap in manufacturing capacity valuations between the two major players.
The latest Bernstein report reveals stark differences in manufacturing capacity valuations between the major players. Waaree Energies is valued at approximately 0.5 times enterprise value per GW for both FY27 and FY28 exit-cell capacity, and 0.3 times for FY28 exit cell-plus-ingot capacity. In contrast, Premier Energies carries lower EV-per-GW figures at 0.4 times for FY27 exit-cell capacity and 0.2 times for FY28 exit cell-plus-ingot capacity. Bernstein's assessment notes that among cell players, 'large players premium has come down', explaining the reduced valuation for Premier Energies despite its manufacturing capabilities.
Bernstein outlined specific valuation benchmarks and target prices across major Indian solar and clean-energy infrastructure names: Tata Power: Target price set at ₹430 with 18.8% upside, valued through earnings estimates at 24.3x FY27 P/E and 21x FY28 P/E. Waaree Energies: Target price set at ₹2,539 with 3.4% upside, valued at 10x FY28 Enterprise Value-to-EBITDA (EV/EBITDA). Premier Energies: Target price set at ₹814 with 10.2% downside, pegged at 10.5x FY28 EV/EBITDA, reflecting its trial-phase execution lead. ReNew Energy Global: Target price set at $8, based on a DCF model assuming a 12% cost of equity and 9% cost of debt.
For pure-play manufacturing contenders Waaree Energies and Premier Energies, Bernstein identified shared upside risks largely tethered to domestic supply protection and policy longevity. Both players stand to gain if broader, industry-wide additions of solar cell and module capacities face delays spurred by recurring bottlenecks such as equipment import logistics or visa hold-ups for foreign technical experts. This may preserve domestic pricing power and supply scarcity. Additional tailwinds could emerge from an early imposition of government restrictions on solar wafer imports, as well as an extension of the central rooftop solar subsidy scheme beyond FY27. Both companies could unlock fresh valuation upside through successful execution and diversification into adjacent clean-technology ventures, notably advanced battery storage manufacturing. Conversely, utilities and integrated clean-energy developers face notable downside risks centered on regulatory negotiations, transmission infrastructure, and technology disruption.
