ICICI Securities has upgraded Nephrocare Health Services to a 'buy' rating from its previous 'add' recommendation, with the target price increased to ₹825 from ₹725 in its latest research report dated September 8, 2026. The brokerage firm's analysis highlights the company's successful cracking of the dialysis business model through operations in price-sensitive markets like India and competitive overseas markets such as the Philippines. The stock has demonstrated strong momentum, jumping 64% year-to-date compared to a 12% decline in the equity benchmark Sensex, with shares hitting a 52-week high of ₹767.95 on June 12, 2026, and closing at ₹747.35 on September 10, 2026.
Over the FY23–26 period, Nephrocare has demonstrated strong revenue acceleration at a 31% CAGR, driven by strategic acquisitions including 29 companies in the Philippines during this timeframe. The company has also recently opened a new centre in Saudi Arabia and acquired a 100% stake in Dialysis Center Almaty, positioning itself to enter Kazakhstan. ICICI Securities projects impressive future growth with revenue, EBITDA, and PAT CAGRs of nearly 21.7%, 27.6%, and 43.4% respectively over FY26–29E, with operating leverage driving a 356 basis points jump in EBITDA margin to 26.5% in FY29E. The company's asset-light model and operating leverage from overseas business could help scale RoE from 12.7% in FY26 to 18.8% in FY29E and RoCE from nearly 12.4% to 18.1% in FY29E.
The company's overseas operations demonstrate superior profitability with realisation rates of USD 75–200 compared to USD 22 in India. According to ICICI Securities, Nephrocare's proven ability to manage costs has made its overseas operations highly profitable. The brokerage notes that the company's superior realisation rates and cost management capabilities have been key factors in its international expansion success. The stock currently trades at valuations of 37.5 times FY27E and 28.4 times FY28E earnings, with EV/EBITDA multiples of 22 times FY27E and 16.8 times FY28E.
Management has outlined ambitious expansion plans, aspiring to enter one new overseas market every 1–1.5 years. ICICI Securities has revised its target price to ₹825, representing a 33x FY28E EPS multiple, up from the previous 30x multiple. The brokerage's upgrade to buy rating reflects confidence in the company's ability to continue its successful international expansion strategy. The stock has maintained positive momentum with gains in September and since April 2025, demonstrating resilience against broader market weakness.
