Indian equity benchmarks experienced significant declines during Monday's mid-session trade, with the BSE Sensex falling over 400 points and the Nifty 50 dropping around 115 points from their previous closing levels. According to reports from LiveMint, the decline was attributed to renewed geopolitical tensions dampening investor sentiment, with domestic markets remaining under pressure amid concerns over fresh military exchanges between the US and Iran. The markets opened on a muted note following the long weekend, with investors now focusing on upcoming domestic macroeconomic indicators.
As reported by LiveMint, Vinay Rajani, Senior Technical and Derivative Analyst at HDFC Securities, noted that the Nifty 50 failed to hold above the key resistance at 24,200 and reversed on the final session, keeping the index in a six-session consolidation between 23,800–24,200. The index is currently hovering around the 100DEMA at 24,138 without a decisive breakout, while the 20DEMA at 23,830 and 50DEMA at 23,850 continue to act as supports. Rajani emphasized that midcaps and smallcaps, which led earlier, are losing bullish momentum with softened breadth, requiring volume and broader participation for conviction in any upside movement. He advised traders to maintain long positions with a closing stop at 23,800 and prefer adding only after a confirmed breakout with higher volume and improving breadth.
According to the technical analysis from HDFC Securities, banks, NBFCs and healthcare sectors look relatively stronger and can outperform in the near term. As reported by LiveMint, Rajani recommended L&T Finance Ltd with a buy price of ₹302, stop-loss at ₹295.8, and target of ₹332, noting that the stock has broken out from the downward-sloping trend line on the daily chart with rising volume and position above all key moving averages. The stock's daily RSI has been sustaining above 50, while daily MACD has reached above the equilibrium and signal line, with a descending triangle breakout on the weekly chart accompanied by rising volumes. Additionally, he suggested Welspun Enterprises at ₹573 with stop-loss at ₹514 and target of ₹640, citing a descending triangle breakout on the weekly chart accompanied by rising volumes and position above all key moving averages, with weekly RSI sustaining above 50 and weekly MACD moving above the equilibrium and signal lines.
Investors are now focusing on key domestic macroeconomic indicators, including Industrial Production (IIP) data, government's fiscal deficit figures, final readings of HSBC Manufacturing, Services and Composite PMIs, and latest foreign exchange reserves data for cues on the strength of the Indian economy. According to LiveMint, after recent outperformance, a period of healthy consolidation or running correction is normal—treat pullbacks to the 20/50DEMA region as selective entry opportunities while maintaining strict risk management. A sustainable close above 24,200 would expose the 200DEMA near 24,450 as the next target, while a decisive daily close below 23,800 would increase the risk of a deeper pullback toward 23,500–23,300.
