According to The Hindu BusinessLine, gold has delivered exceptional returns in recent years, with 16.9% CAGR over the last five years and 13.9% over the last ten years in dollar terms. However, these returns moderate significantly over longer horizons, with 10.5% annualised returns over 20 years and 8.7% over 30 years. The analysis notes that gold's recent performance has been driven by an extraordinary combination of war, reserve insecurity, sanctions risk and aggressive central-bank demand, creating conditions that have flattered gold's returns beyond typical market cycles. As reported by Stansberry Research, gold has been rallying since September 2022 but has only started to outperform stocks in the past two years, with the gold-to-S&P-500 ratio at 0.76 today, which would need to double to reach its 2011 peak.
As reported by The Hindu BusinessLine, central bank gold purchases have surged dramatically from 458 tonnes annually from 2010-2021 to 1,006 tonnes annually from 2022-2025. In absolute terms, central banks purchased 1,080 tonnes in 2022, 1,037 tonnes in 2023, 1,045 tonnes in 2024 and 863 tonnes in 2025. This surge is attributed to concerns about geopolitical and sanctions risk following the freezing of Russia's reserves in 2022, with central banks seeking diversification away from concentrated dollar exposure and holding a reserve asset with no counterparty risk. According to Stansberry Research, gold has been up 76% from the end of 2024 into early 2026, significantly outperforming U.S. stocks which were up 18% over the same period.
According to the analysis, the BSE 500 TRI has delivered 14.77% CAGR over five years, 16.14% over ten years and 14.05% over 20 years, including dividends to provide a more realistic picture of investor returns. This performance significantly outpaces gold's longer-term returns, demonstrating that even during periods of global uncertainty, broad equities still show stronger long-term compounding. The report emphasizes that equities benefit from the far bigger force of long-term economic growth compared to gold's role as a protective asset. As noted by Stansberry Research, even Nvidia, the AI darling, couldn't keep up with gold's rally, rallying just 39% over the same period.
As reported by The Hindu BusinessLine, the analysis concludes that gold has won the recent fear cycle but equities still hold the long-term edge. The author emphasizes that gold has an important role in portfolios as a hedge, store of value and stabilizer during crises, but should not be mistaken for the superior engine of wealth creation. According to Stansberry Research, the current gold boom isn't as old as it seems, with gold and U.S. stocks taking turns being the best performers over years rather than weeks or months. The report suggests that even in a world shaped by war and fragmentation, cash-generating businesses remain better at compounding wealth than a haven asset designed primarily to protect it, with ownership of productive businesses proving more rewarding than ownership of a non-yielding metal over time. The analysis warns against chasing euphoria, noting that gold fell 14% from January 28 to February 2 after pockets of euphoric sentiment emerged in January.
