Gift Nifty was trading around 24,115 level, down 8 points from the Nifty futures' previous close of 24,123.80, indicating a cautious start for the Indian stock market indices on Tuesday. The Indian stock market benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are expected to open on a cautious note amid mixed global cues, as investors continue to monitor developments surrounding the US-Iran peace agreement and the outlook for US interest rates. On Monday, domestic equities extended their gains, supported by optimism over progress in US-Iran peace talks and easing crude oil prices, with the BSE Sensex advancing 291.17 points, or 0.38%, to close at 77,094.07, while the NSE Nifty 50 gained 89.80 points, or 0.37%, to settle at 24,102.90. However, Asian markets traded lower, while Wall Street ended on a mixed note overnight amid growing expectations that the US Federal Reserve could keep monetary policy tighter for longer.
Iranian negotiators reported progress in discussions with the United States, but the talks have faced significant setbacks that are tempering market optimism. Representatives from Qatar and Pakistan issued a statement indicating that the initial round of talks had concluded and that headway had been made towards a plan to finalise an agreement within 60 days. However, concerns emerged after reports indicated that an Iranian delegation walked out of the talks following recent threats from US President Donald Trump, casting doubt on the pace and durability of the proposed agreement. As per LiveMint, negotiations are reportedly continuing through mediators, suggesting that diplomatic efforts remain on track despite the initial setback. The renewed uncertainty has pushed crude oil prices modestly higher, with Brent crude futures climbing 0.19% to $78.05 per barrel and US West Texas Intermediate crude rising 0.39% to $74.15 per barrel, after recently declining to around $73 per barrel. However, the improving geopolitical sentiment helped cap gains in crude oil prices, with Brent crude easing 0.4% to around $80 per barrel after initially rising on concerns that Iran had once again restricted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Asian markets traded firmly higher on Monday after reports suggested progress in talks between the United States and Iran. Japan's Nikkei rose 1.9% after gaining nearly 8% last week, while South Korea's Kospi climbed another 2.6%, extending its recent rally driven by semiconductor stocks. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan gained 1%, with the positive momentum supported by the progress in US-Iran negotiations. The improving geopolitical sentiment also helped cap gains in crude oil prices, with US crude trading near $77.5 per barrel. Oil remains a key variable for Indian markets, with prices having rebounded from recent lows but remaining significantly below the levels seen during the height of the conflict.
All six members of the RBI's MPC favoured a wait-and-watch approach as they voted for a status quo on benchmark interest rates earlier this month, citing high uncertainty over the trajectory of inflation and growth prospects due to the US-Iran war, according to the minutes of the MPC meeting. China left benchmark lending rates unchanged for the 13th consecutive month in June, with the People's Bank of China (PBOC) keeping the one-year loan prime rate (LPR) at 3.00%, while the five-year LPR was unchanged at 3.50%. Japanese government bond (JGB) yields extended gains for a third day, amid rising inflation and fiscal concerns, with the benchmark 10-year JGB yield rising 3 bps to 2.675%. Gold prices remained stable as investors evaluated the peace discussions between the US and Iran, with the spot gold price holding firm at $4,191.09 per ounce, while US gold futures set for August delivery increased by 0.2% to $4,208.40. Meanwhile, spot silver prices dipped by 0.4% to $64.92 per ounce.
Indian equity benchmarks extended gains for a fourth consecutive session, reaching their longest winning streak in ten weeks before Friday's decline. India's stock market value has crossed the $5 trillion mark, placing India back in the sixth position globally. The surge has been driven by the US-Iran peace deal and retreating crude prices, which have eased inflation concerns and boosted investor sentiment. Gift Nifty Live Chart shows a negative start for Tuesday, with the Nifty 50 continuing to trade with a constructive bias, holding firmly above its key support levels despite intermittent profit-booking. For the Nifty 50, technical analysis identifies the 24,200 level as the immediate resistance zone, with targets of 24,400 level and support at 23,900 level. As per LiveMint, the India VIX rose 2.35% to 12.97 but continued to trade at relatively low levels and remained well below its major moving averages, which suggests that market participants remain comfortable with the broader trend. Institutional flows provided a positive surprise in the previous session, with Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) emerging as net buyers on June 19, purchasing equities worth ₹4,859 crore, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) turned net sellers after 23 consecutive sessions of buying, offloading shares worth ₹1,159 crore.
Market experts have recommended eight buy-or-sell stocks for Tuesday's trading session. Sumeet Bagadia of Choice Broking recommended buying Bharat Forge at ₹2,104 with target ₹2,250 and Adani Green Energy at ₹1,550 with target ₹1,650. Ganesh Dongre from Anand Rathi suggested Varun Beverages at ₹513 with target ₹540, Jindal Steel at ₹1,132 with target ₹1,170, and Tata Power at ₹406 with target ₹415. Shiju Koothupalakkal from Prabhudas Lilladher recommended TVS Motor at ₹3,488 with target ₹3,650, Marsons at ₹120.80 with target ₹130, and Power Finance Corporation at ₹440.90 with target ₹465. According to Enrich Money's Ponmudi R, markets are likely to remain sensitive to developments surrounding the US-Iran negotiations, with investors closely tracking both crude oil prices and negotiations for further direction. Ajit Mishra from Religare Broking recommends following a 'buy on dips' approach as long as the Nifty holds above the 23,700 mark, with an upside potential towards the 24,450–24,600 zone, while maintaining preference for rate-sensitive segments such as banking, realty, auto, pharma and defence.
