According to reports from The Economic Times, Vikas Khemani of Carnelian Asset Management highlighted that India has built a strong foundation for growth over the past decade. Speaking at the ET Alpha Wealth Summit in Mumbai, Khemani emphasized that India's manufacturing GDP currently sits at just 14-15% of the economy, but he sees this figure rising to 20-25% over the next 10-15 years. This growth trajectory is driven by both import substitution and export-oriented strategies, which Khemani calls a 'multi-decade opportunity'. The panel discussion, moderated by Kshitij Anand of ET Digital, focused on India's positioning for the next decade amid various economic and technological shifts.
As reported by The Economic Times, Khemani highlighted India's unique demographic dividend, stating that 'More earners means more consumers. More consumers means GDP growth. It is, as Khemani put it, almost arithmetic'. He emphasized that India's structural diversification across BFSI, manufacturing, consumer, services, and infrastructure sectors provides a buffer and increasingly, a source of compounding strength. This diversification differentiates India from other emerging markets, creating resilience in the economic structure. The breadth of this diversification is not a weakness, but rather a strategic advantage that positions India for sustained growth.
According to The Economic Times report, Khemani identified five sectors set to create wealth over the next decade: 1. Manufacturing - with the current 14-15% GDP share expected to reach 20-25% through import substitution and exports, 2. Financials - as per capita income rises and savings pools deepen into formal financial products, 3. Consumption - driven by rising incomes and premiumization trends across FMCG, retail, and lifestyle categories, 4. Services - including IT and related sectors, and 5. Infrastructure - benefiting from government spending at unprecedented levels despite slower returns. These sectors are positioned to capitalize on India's robust digital and physical infrastructure, alongside regulatory reforms that have strengthened the economic foundation.
Despite recent market volatility, Khemani emphasized that 'It is a moment to recognize that India's structural re-rating is in front of us, not behind us' as reported by The Economic Times. Market experts are noting favorable conditions, with Dhiraj Relli of HDFC Securities noting that the Nifty is currently trading at close to a 10% discount to its long-period average, an unusual condition for a market that routinely commands premium multiples. Relli expects 'any near-term volatility should be viewed as an opportunity to increase equity exposure' and believes 'the Nifty could hit a new all-time high later this year once uncertainty around the US-Iran conflict starts abating'. International brokerage Nomura has raised its Nifty target to 25,900 by March 2027, citing strong AI themes and supportive central banks as key drivers.
