The Nifty 50 index declined 516.65 points, or 2.12%, marking its sharpest single day fall in three months on Wednesday. According to NDTV Profit, the crash was triggered by escalating geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, after US President Donald Trump stated that the ceasefire with Iran was "over." This triggered a spike in crude oil prices and added pressure on Indian equities. Market breadth remained extremely weak, reflecting broad-based selling across sectors, with the India VIX jumping nearly 26% in a single session. The decline was sharp enough to wipe out the gains made during the first five trading sessions of the month in just one session, indicating faster downside retracement. All sectoral indices ended in the red, while the index also filled two gaps created in the previous week.
The index closed decisively below its 20-DMA and tested the 50-DMA after falling more than 500 points. As per NDTV Profit, the price action is currently pointing towards the formation of a bearish engulfing candle, though a couple of trading sessions are still left for the week to conclude. Immediate support is placed near 23,828, which coincides with the 50 DMA, followed by the four-week low of 23,784. A major support zone is placed near the June 15 gap area around 23,645. The 14 period daily RSI has slipped below the 50 mark, indicating loss of momentum, while the MACD is close to generating a fresh bearish signal. On the upside, the index is likely to face resistance in the 24,000 to 24,200 zone, as long as the index trades below this band, it may remain difficult for bulls to regain momentum.
Brokerages have issued fresh views on multiple stocks including Dr Lal Path, Axis Bank, Syrma SGS, Delhivery, Indus Towers, and Phoenix Mills. According to reports from NDTV Profit, Citi maintains a Buy rating on Dr Lal Path with a target price of ₹1,950, citing the stock's trading near its 5-year average EV/EBITDA multiple with room for further upside. JPMorgan has initiated a Buy rating on Syrma SGS with a target price of ₹1,750, highlighting the company's high growth manufacturing capabilities and diversified customer base. HSBC maintains Buy ratings on both Phoenix Mills (target ₹2,230) and Delhivery (target ₹610), while Nomura maintains a Buy rating on Indus Towers with a target of ₹505. Citi has added Dr Lal Path to its 90-day catalyst watch with expectations of sustained momentum from network expansion benefits and gold exchange initiatives gaining traction. Volume growth accelerated to 9% in Q4 reflecting the benefits of sustained network expansion, with this momentum expected to sustain over coming quarters.
The jewellery sector is experiencing a demand shift toward recycling and lighter products, as reported by JPMorgan. Titan remains an Overweight pick with the core jewelry franchise underpinned by structural tailwinds. Retailers are pushing exchange and encashment schemes to pull in footfall and recycle gold, with the April-June quarter showing good performance across players. In the life insurance sector, SBI Life and Max Life are performing well while HDFC Life is lagging, according to Macquarie analysis. The industry recorded healthy growth of 16% YoY in terms of individual APE, with LIC registering 21% YoY growth aided by favorable base effects. SBI Life and Max Life are positioned as top picks in the sector, while HDFC Life faces margin risks from faster growth in group savings business during the June 2026 quarter.
According to Jefferies analysis, small and mid-caps are expected to continue posting robust earnings versus large-caps, with the outlook favoring double-digit earnings growth. MSCI India earnings growth forecast is 11%/13% for CY26/27. The IT sector faces challenges from tech deflation but valuations are at a bottom, potentially improving if the global AI narrative moderates. Year-end targets for Nifty 50 remain 30,000/27,000/20,500 with the current trend favoring large-cap earnings growth driven by financials. Banks remain one of the preferred large-cap sectors with increasing weight in lending financials, while SMID-caps have stolen the thunder driven by strong EPS growth in India, though a broad-based reversal of this multi-year trend is unlikely. The Nifty needs to defend the 23,645 to 23,828 support zone to avoid deeper downside, while a sustained move above 24,200 would be required for bulls to regain confidence.
