According to reports from The Block, prediction markets recorded exceptional trading activity during the early stages of the FIFA World Cup, with daily volumes rising from $2.2 billion on June 11 to $4.8 billion on June 12 when the U.S. played Paraguay. The figures already exceed the $1.4 billion traded during last season's Super Bowl, highlighting the significant surge in prediction market engagement during major sporting events. Latest data from KuCoin shows that traders committed over $2 billion in total pre-tournament liquidity to championship futures contracts before the opening match even kicked off on June 11, 2026. As reported by Piper Sandler analyst Patrick Moley, the World Cup is "like the Super Bowl every day," driving record daily volumes on Kalshi since Friday.
According to the latest Bernstein research note, the transition of the FIFA World Cup from a 32-team structure to an expanded 48-team format has increased the total match count from 64 to 104 matches, representing a massive 62.5% increase in base bettable inventory. This structural expansion provides prediction exchanges with an elite, high-throughput environment capable of maintaining deep order book liquidity over a concentrated 30-day window. With 104 matches played across North American stadiums, prediction platforms are experiencing continuous group-stage hedging, multi-contract arbitraging, and regional trading volume from newly qualified nations that had never previously entered the global betting handle.
The World Cup has exposed a growing global regulatory rift as countries increasingly restrict access to prediction market platforms. In just the last few weeks, Spain, Indonesia and India have joined the growing list of countries including most of the European Union and large parts of Asia that have implemented temporary or permanent measures to cut off access to Kalshi and Polymarket websites and apps. As reported by Business Standard, Brazil shut down 27 prediction platforms in April, including Kalshi, leaving the company scrambling shortly after launching in the country. The regulatory uncertainty stems from whether these platforms should be classified as gambling or financial instruments, with some countries viewing them as forms of gambling subject to betting laws while others argue they should fall under securities or derivatives rules.
As reported by The Block, Bernstein projects Robinhood's prediction market revenue to increase from $150 million in 2025 to $586 million in 2026, representing a 286% year-over-year increase. This projected figure would account for approximately 17% of transaction-based revenues and 10% of total revenue for the company in 2026. According to the research firm, prediction markets have become Robinhood's fastest-growing product line by revenue since launch. Coinbase has emerged as another major beneficiary, surpassing $100 million in annualized revenue within its first two months of launching its dedicated prediction market product line in early 2026. Polymarket recorded around $2.8 billion in notional trading volume across international and US exchanges in the first week of June, up from $2.1 billion a week earlier, while Kalshi reported about $4.5 billion over the same period, up from $4.2 billion.
According to official platform data cited by Pew Research, total monthly prediction market volume reached an all-time high of $31.2 billion in May 2026, driven largely by World Cup anticipation. Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated platform, captured a dominant 57% of total market share in May 2026, with monthly trading volume surging 21% month-over-month to hit $17.9 billion. In contrast, Polymarket experienced a 14.8% decline over the same period, settling at $7.1 billion in trading volume. The companies are responding to regulatory pressure by strengthening safeguards against insider trading and market manipulation and partnering with blockchain analytics firms like Chainalysis to police suspicious trades. Polymarket has stated it "welcomes the opportunity to collaborate with Spain, Brazil, and other countries on a path forward that supports responsible innovation, transparency, and user protection," while Opinion Labs is working with local authorities toward launching compliant platforms.
