Prediction market platforms achieved unprecedented growth during the 2026 FIFA World Cup, with Kalshi posting $31 billion in total notional trading volume in June, representing a more than 70% jump from May according to Dune analytics. The company's World Cup-specific volume reached $22.42 billion, while Polymarket's international exchange set a new monthly record at $10.8 billion overall trading volume. Rothera, the joint venture between Robinhood and Susquehanna International Group, launched in June and processed $2 billion in its debut month, already accounting for 7% of the U.S. prediction market according to Bank of America.
The World Cup brought significant demographic changes to prediction markets, with Kalshi's female users growing 106% during the tournament, more than twice the 54% growth rate among male users. By late June, 33.3% of Kalshi's user base was female, compared with 22-23% for DraftKings and FanDuel. According to Apptopia data, Kalshi's daily active users were 36% above their June 15 level by June 30, while traditional sportsbook apps declined significantly - DraftKings fell 36%, FanDuel dropped 41%, and BetMGM and Caesars each declined 32%. Kalshi and Polymarket together accounted for 78.5% of betting app installs across the six major platforms tracked by Apptopia through June, up from roughly 6% a year earlier.
Despite the prediction market surge, traditional sportsbooks still handled significant volumes during the tournament. U.S. legal sportsbooks are projected to handle between $2.8 billion and $4.3 billion across the tournament's 104 matches, with operators reporting record-breaking handle levels. BetMGM said the U.S. vs Belgium round-of-16 match became the most-bet soccer game in the history of several major American books, while DraftKings reported handle running at approximately five times its 2022 levels. However, the conditions pointed toward prediction markets gaining market share, with 39 states now having legal mobile sports betting compared to 19 in 2022, and the U.S. team's run to the round of 16 generating domestic interest soccer has never previously sustained.
The World Cup brought institutional interest to prediction markets, with DRW, the Chicago-based trading giant, building a dedicated prediction market desk targeting Polymarket and Kalshi using cross-platform arbitrage techniques honed in derivatives markets. Major institutional trading firms are actively entering the space, building dedicated desks to treat these prediction markets like legitimate financial derivatives. Unlike traditional sportsbooks, prediction markets cover far more than sports - Kalshi and Polymarket both carry contracts on political elections, economic data and even reality TV shows like Love Island. The platforms' growth reflects efficient arbitrage between platforms, with sharp money moving to close gaps as they opened, demonstrating that prediction markets now hold enough volume that experienced traders recognize the prices as credible.
The prediction market landscape has evolved significantly since Polymarket's 2022 CFTC fine, when the company was fined $1.4 million for operating unregistered event-based derivatives and agreed to stop serving U.S. customers. Polymarket acquired a CFTC-licensed exchange for $112 million, received an Amended Order of Designation from the regulator in November, and launched a U.S. iOS app in December. The regulated U.S. app requires full KYC identity verification, is funded through registered futures commission merchants rather than crypto wallets, and settles in U.S. dollars, while the global platform carries no identity checks and settles in USDC. According to Allium analysis, U.S.-linked wallets traded $571 million on Polymarket's global platform over the past year, more than any other country, ahead of Hong Kong's $422 million.
