Welspun Corp shares jumped nearly 6% during Thursday's trading session after Jefferies initiated coverage with a 'Buy' rating and target price of ₹3,250, implying a 27% upside from the brokerage's reference price of ₹2,553.45. The stock was trading at ₹2,669.70 on the NSE, up ₹146.20 or 5.79%, after opening at ₹2,554.70 against its previous close of ₹2,523.50. The stock has rallied 51.51% over the past month, significantly outperforming the benchmark's 2.80% gain, with volume-weighted average price standing at ₹2,612.52 and traded value of ₹411.36 crore. The company's free-float market capitalisation stood at ₹33,944 crore during the session.
Jefferies initiated coverage on Welspun Corp stock with a 'Buy' rating for a target price of ₹3,250 per share, citing the company's well-positioned status to benefit from a multi-year upcycle in energy and water infrastructure spending in the US and Saudi Arabia. The brokerage valued the stock at 17 times its estimated September 2028 enterprise value-to-EBITDA, expecting the company to deliver a strong 32% EBITDA CAGR and 33% earnings per share CAGR over FY26-29E. Jefferies expects earnings growth to be supported by a 51% expansion in capacity across the US and Saudi Arabia, alongside rising contribution from higher-margin overseas business. The target price implies an upside of 27% from the ruling market price, with the brokerage noting that at 17 times one-year forward EV/EBITDA, the valuation remains reasonable given the expected earnings growth, strong order book and high return on equity.
On August 20, 2026, Welspun Corp secured the largest single order in its history — valued at approximately $1.8 billion (₹17,200 crore) — for the supply of pipes from its manufacturing facility in the US. As per CareEdge Ratings, the order will be executed between FY28 & FY29. The company's consolidated order book stood at ₹42,100 crore as on July 27, 2026, providing strong revenue visibility over the next 2 years and equivalent to around 2.5 times its FY26 revenue. The increased proportion of higher-margin US Line Pipes orders in the consolidated order book, to be executed over FY27 and FY28, is likely to support margin sustenance, while optimum capacity utilization backed by new order flows is expected to result in continued healthy cash generation.
Welspun Corp is the world's largest welded line pipe manufacturer, with a total capacity of 2.4 million tonnes per annum and exposure to oil and gas, water infrastructure and industrial applications. The US is likely to be a key growth driver, with Bloomberg estimates showing cumulative US midstream capex at $240 billion during CY26-30E, 57% higher than the previous five-year period. The Lines Pipes segment (67% of installed steel products capacity) continues to be driven by the company's US manufacturing operations, with the medium-term demand outlook remaining strong driven by significant investments in LNG export infrastructure and increased power infrastructure demand for AI data centres. Around half of its EBITDA came from the US in FY26, while the company already commands around 30% of the US market. The brokerage expects the US energy infrastructure cycle to remain strong for several years, supported by rising liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports, higher electricity demand from data centres and increasing gas output from the Permian Basin.
Saudi Arabia presents another major opportunity, with gas transmission and water infrastructure investment gaining importance under Vision 2030. Welspun Corp has a 22% stake in Saudi-based pipe maker EPIC, which contributed around 20% of FY26 PAT, and is setting up a 600,000-tonne-per-year capacity through a wholly owned subsidiary in the country. Rising localisation requirements further favor domestic manufacturers, with the facility envisaged as a regional manufacturing hub helping strengthen supply chains and support infrastructure development across the Middle East. Over time, the platform could cater to reconstruction and infrastructure requirements in Syria, Lebanon, Iraq and Gaza, as well as potential opportunities linked to regional oil and gas infrastructure connected to the Port of Aqaba. Jefferies believes growing local-content requirements could further support manufacturers with a domestic presence.
Jefferies expects revenue to nearly double from ₹16,770 crore in FY26 to ₹33,217 crore in FY29, with EBITDA projected to increase from ₹2,236 crore to ₹5,138 crore and net profit estimated to rise from ₹1,613 crore to ₹3,805 crore during the same period. Earnings per share are expected to climb from ₹61.15 in FY26 to ₹144.25 in FY29, with EBITDA projected to grow at 32-33% annually on a compounded basis between FY26-29E. The brokerage expects the company to deliver 17% volume growth and around 33% EPS CAGR over FY26-29E, led by capacity expansions, robust order book and improving mix, along with rising net cash and 23% ROE. Jefferies expects the company to achieve a 22-23% return on equity (ROE) during FY27-29E, maintaining the strong performance trajectory from the average 21% ROE achieved during FY24-FY26. Jefferies expects net cash to increase from ₹1,400 crore at the end of FY26 to ₹3,900 crore by FY29, while forecasting free cash flow of ₹1,100-2,000 crore during FY28 and FY29 as operating cash generation improves.
