Indian rice exports experienced a 10% decline in value to $5.86 billion in FY26, despite achieving a 6.5% volume increase to over 15 million tonnes of non-basmati rice, according to data from the Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority (APEDA). As reported by The Hindu BusinessLine, the value drop was primarily attributed to challenges in the African market, while shipments to other regions including South Asia, East Africa, West Asia, and other South African countries showed positive growth. The decline represents a significant shift from the previous year's performance, with exports valued at $6.53 billion in 2024-25.
The sluggish African performance was driven by multiple factors including huge inventories from the previous year when African countries purchased large quantities after India lifted its rice export ban in 2024, according to New Delhi-based trade analyst S Chandrasekaran. Exporters Rajesh Paharia Jain cited foreign exchange shortages in African countries, stronger competition from Thailand, Vietnam, and Pakistan, and disruption in freight as key contributing factors. The US Department of Agriculture projects India will continue to account for 40% of global rice trade in the upcoming season. Nigeria, Senegal, and Benin faced severe US dollar shortages, while some buyers sought trade in local currencies, which Indian exporters rejected. Delays in contracts and reduction in fresh purchase orders further hurt Indian exports, with exporters noting that when India curbed rice exports, African countries signed long-term contracts with alternative suppliers, losing India's continuity in supply chains.
Despite market challenges, India maintains its competitive advantage with rice prices at $350 per tonne for 5% broken rice, which is at least $40 per tonne lower than Pakistan, $60 lower than Vietnam, and $145 lower than Thailand for the same grade, as reported by The Hindu BusinessLine. In parboiled rice, India's price of $338 per tonne significantly undercuts Pakistan's $391 and Thailand's $511. However, industry sources note competitive pressures within India's export sector, with each exporter trying to undermine others. Indian rice prices have not picked up as other competitors, with the sentiment taking a decisively bearish turn in India's parboiled market, an indicator of problems in trade with Africa, which is the largest purchaser of parboiled rice.
Specific African markets showed significant declines in Indian exports, with Benin dropping by 17%, Côte d'Ivoire falling by 23.5%, Cameroon declining by 10%, Sierra Leone dropping by 41%, and Angola falling by 23%, according to exporter Rajesh Paharia Jain. The Iran war compounded challenges through higher freight rates and war surcharges, while Thai and Vietnamese currency weakness and Pakistan's aggressive pricing in the African market shifted demand to cheaper origins. To add to Indian woes, Thai and Vietnamese currencies weakened, while Pakistan priced its produce aggressively in the African market, which shifted to cheaper origins. Indian exporters struggled to maintain margins as they faced cut-throat competition within the country, with each trying to undermine others.
For the 2026-27 season (September 2026-August 2027), India is projected to export 24.5 million tonnes of basmati and non-basmati rice, as reported by The Hindu BusinessLine. The Food and Agriculture Organisation noted that India's 68.34 million tonnes of rice stocks, including 28.7 million tonnes in paddy form, could provide an edge in the global market. However, challenges persist with Nigeria maintaining import bans for nearly a decade and the Philippines and Indonesia imposing restrictions to encourage domestic production. The Philippines, Vietnam, and China remain the top importers, while the USDA projects India will continue to account for 40% of global trade.
