The Business Employment Dynamics (BED) report for 2025 Q3 reveals a concerning trend in US employment dynamics. According to the latest data, gross job losses from contracting and closing private-sector establishments reached 7.6 million from June 2025 to September 2025, representing a decrease of 272,000 jobs from the previous quarter. Simultaneously, gross job gains from expanding and opening private-sector establishments totaled 7.5 million, marking a decrease of 110,000 jobs from the previous quarter. This resulted in a net loss of 159,000 jobs for 2025 Q3, following a net loss of 321,000 jobs in 2025 Q2. The data shows that establishment births accounted for 967,000 jobs in Q3 2025, with 323,000 new establishments created during the quarter.
The employment impact varied significantly by firm size during the third quarter. As reported by the BED data, firms with 1 to 49 employees experienced a net employment decrease of 138,000 jobs, while firms with 50 to 249 employees lost 75,000 net jobs. In contrast, firms with 250 or more employees added 4,000 net jobs during the same period. The data shows that establishment births accounted for 967,000 jobs in Q3 2025, with 323,000 new establishments created during the quarter.
Industry-specific challenges are contributing to the employment decline, with containerboard companies experiencing negative EBITDA margins in a significant way. According to recent earnings transcripts, the market is expected to decline more than 3% from current levels, predominantly across the North American region. However, companies are implementing aggressive cost reduction measures, including active cost takeout programs and facility closures to mitigate wage inflation. Despite current challenges, companies report having colossal backlog and pipeline for new business, with expectations of inflection in Q3 of next year with better quality business across all facilities.
