The Bureau of Labor Statistics released preliminary benchmark revisions showing US job growth was revised down by 79,000 for the year through March, representing a 0.1% decrease in employment. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics' preliminary benchmark revision released Friday, this downward revision was entirely attributed to the private sector. The median projection in a Bloomberg survey of economists had called for a 183,000 increase, significantly higher than the actual revision. The revision emerged from the annual process of comparing current employment statistics estimates with employment counts from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, which draws on mandatory state unemployment insurance tax records submitted by nearly all employers to state workforce agencies. The BLS noted that the size of the adjustment was within the range seen historically, with annual benchmark revisions over the past decade having an absolute average of 0.2% of total nonfarm employment.
The revision was concentrated in the private sector, with private employment adjusted down by 178,000, also equivalent to 0.1%. The Bureau of Labor Statistics stated that the preliminary estimate of the Current Employment Statistics (CES) national benchmark revision to total nonfarm employment for March 2026 was -79,000 (-0.1%). The private sector's larger revision reflects the greater statistical sampling error at more detailed industry levels compared to aggregated employment data. As the BLS noted, many individual industry series registered larger percentage changes than the overall nonfarm employment figure, primarily because statistical sampling error is greater at more detailed levels than at an aggregated level.
Before the revision, the government's payrolls data indicated employers added 211,000 jobs in the year through March on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, or an average of 17,600 per month, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The preliminary benchmark revision now shows average monthly job growth was likely 11,000, representing a significant downward adjustment from the previously reported figures. This revision underscores a downshift in the labor market that prompted the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in 2025 despite persistent inflation. The BLS emphasized that the preliminary benchmark revision should be viewed as an indication of the difference between two independently derived employment counts, each subject to its own sources of error.
The downward revision underscores a downshift in the labor market that prompted the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in 2025 despite persistent inflation. As reported by Bloomberg, preliminary benchmark revisions have now lowered employment estimates in seven of the past eight years. The latest adjustment suggests that the labor market is roughly balanced, with employers slow to hire new workers but also slow to fire existing staff. This moderate growth pattern reflects a challenging employment environment where job creation remains subdued across multiple sectors. The BLS noted that the preliminary benchmark revision would not be incorporated into current official establishment survey estimates at this stage, with the final adjustment scheduled for February 2027 when the January 2027 Employment Situation news release is published.
