Gold prices closed the week under pressure at $4,408.9 per ounce on COMEX, retreating sharply from the $4,500 zone after touching a high of $4,488.80. According to Live Mint, the precious metal is experiencing its third consecutive weekly decline despite a notable rebound on Friday. In India, MCX gold October futures ended at ₹1,52,784 per 10 grams, though it remained below the 20-DEMA on the technical chart. The retreat comes as crude oil prices surge above $100 per barrel, with WTI crude rising above $104 per barrel, gaining 9.6% over the five sessions and nearly 16% over the past month as US-Iran tensions continue to escalate. As per Enrich Money CEO Ponmudi R, oil once again dominated the commodity landscape, with the sustained rise increasingly becoming the key transmission channel linking geopolitical tensions with inflation expectations and Federal Reserve policy.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released US CPI inflation data at 8:30 am (ET) on September 11, showing CPI inflation for August 2026 at 3.4%, which remained unchanged from July 2026 levels. As reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, gasoline prices rose 3.9% in the same period. The inflation data is particularly significant as it provides context for the Federal Reserve's upcoming September 2026 monetary policy meeting, with investors focusing on potential rate trajectory implications. The much-awaited US inflation report showed consumer prices rose 0.4% in August, after rising 0.1% in July, which helped ease some market concerns about inflation pressures. Core CPI, which excludes energy and food, climbed 0.3% from the month prior, slightly more than expected, indicating broader inflationary pressures beyond just energy costs. Market expectations for core CPI called for increases of 0.2% on the month and 2.4% year-over-year, with the ongoing inflation levels not suggesting any move closer to the 2% Fed target that Chair Kevin Warsh says the Fed must reach. Traders now price in an 85% chance of a rate hike at the central bank's policy meeting next week, up from 67% before the data release according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
Crude oil prices have emerged as the major drag on gold and silver rates, with WTI crude rising above $104 per barrel as US-Iran tensions continue to escalate. According to Enrich Money expert Ponmudi R, oil once again dominated the commodity landscape, with the sustained rise increasingly becoming the key transmission channel linking geopolitical tensions with inflation expectations and Federal Reserve policy. The US diesel prices also climbed above $6 per gallon for the first time, underscoring the growing inflationary impact of higher energy costs. The pressure for a US Fed rate hike was evident in Thursday's producer-price report, which showed annual producer inflation accelerating to 5.4%, above the 5.3% forecast, largely reflecting the impact of higher energy costs. Treasury yields also surged, with the 10-year yield touching 4.975% intraday, its highest level since October 2023, while the two-year yield reached a two-year high near 4.65%. The move was further amplified by a disappointing US Treasury buyback operation that purchased less than its authorised maximum.
The weakness in the Indian rupee provided additional support for domestic precious metals, with USD/INR rising sharply during the week as the Indian rupee weakened by around 1.1% to close at 95.54 per dollar, marking its steepest weekly decline in four months. According to Enrich Money expert Ponmudi R, the elevated crude prices, rising global bond yields and continued dollar demand weighed on the Indian currency, while RBI intervention through dollar-rupee swaps helped limit the pace of depreciation. The weaker rupee raises the landed cost of imported bullion, providing some support to MCX gold and silver rates even when international prices remain under pressure. Gold demand in India was subdued this week as volatile prices discouraged buyers, while investment demand remained strong in top consumer China. The precious metals market continues to reflect the ongoing tension between inflationary pressures and Federal Reserve policy expectations, with gold finding support despite short-term volatility as investors position for potential monetary policy changes.
Technical analysis reveals immediate resistance for COMEX gold at $4,500–$4,530 zone, followed by the next resistance zone at $4,600–$4,630, with a sustained close above $4,600 needed to resume the broader uptrend. As per Enrich Money expert Ponmudi R, immediate support lies in the $4,340–$4,370 zone, with the next support at $4,200–$4,230, and a break below $4,200 would deepen the current corrective move. For MCX gold, immediate resistance is in the ₹1,54,000–₹1,54,700 zone, followed by the next resistance zone at ₹1,56,300–₹1,57,000, with a sustained close above ₹1,57,000 needed to revive the recovery attempt. Immediate support lies in the ₹1,50,000–₹1,50,700 zone, with the next support at ₹1,47,300–₹1,48,000, and a break below ₹1,48,000 would deepen the current pullback. The weekly RSI for COMEX gold has eased to 50, hovering near the midline, while the daily RSI has cooled to 47.65, reflecting a clear loss of short-term momentum.
