According to reports from CoinCodex, SpaceX is preparing for what could become the largest IPO in history, with an expected offering price of $135 per share and a targeted valuation of at least $1.8 trillion. With roughly 13 billion shares outstanding, the company could immediately rank among the largest publicly traded corporations in the United States. However, the company generated approximately $18.67 billion in revenue last year, which would result in a price-to-sales ratio of roughly 96 at the $1.8 trillion valuation. Historically, companies operating in transformative industries have struggled to sustain price-to-sales ratios above 30 over long periods.
Fidelity recently lowered the minimum account balance requirement to participate in the SpaceX IPO to $2,000, marking a dramatic shift from traditional IPO eligibility requirements. Large brokerage firms such as Charles Schwab and Fidelity usually require six-figure account balances to participate in IPOs, but SpaceX is allocating a portion of its offering for retail investors. According to Fidelity's website, most IPOs offer retail customers only 5% to 10% of the total offering, but SpaceX has reserved up to 30% of the offering for retail clients. This expansion allows a broader pool of investors to receive SpaceX IPO allocations, potentially providing more shares to retail clients than traditional IPOs.
As reported by CoinCodex, prediction markets show extreme bullish outliers with some bettors speculating that SpaceX's closing market capitalization could exceed $4 trillion by the end of its first trading day. That would imply a share price above $300, representing a gain of more than 125% from the IPO price. However, the probability assigned to that outcome is extremely low, near 1%. A more moderate expectation places a roughly 38% probability on SpaceX exceeding $2.4 trillion, implying a closing price around $185, or a 35% premium to the IPO level. At the lower end, there is a small probability that SpaceX could close below a $1 trillion valuation, which would imply a share price near $76, roughly 40% below the IPO price.
The expansion of retail participation raises questions about market dynamics and investor behavior. As noted by market analysts, retail investors have historically been the last to access and the first to suffer when sentiment shifts around hot IPOs. With only a $2,000 account minimum, the entry price for the SpaceX IPO is now low enough for less experienced investors to pile in. However, SpaceX has decided to reserve up to 30% of the offering for retail clients, which means there should be more shares available to retail clients than traditional IPOs. The timing and scale of this change invite skepticism, with analysts questioning why the company is opening doors to retail investors after years of deliberately keeping them closed, particularly given the heavily marketed nature of this offering.
