SpaceX's initial public offering has attracted more than $70 billion in orders from retail investors, with the company expected to allocate at least 20% of available shares to individual investors, according to Bloomberg reports. At the $75 billion IPO size, which would be the largest on record, this allocation would leave the bulk of demand from individual investors unfulfilled. The company has received orders from approximately 1,000 institutional investors and is set to allocate less than 10% of shares to international orders, with Japan's allocation increased to $2.5 billion from $2 billion. Retail investors are expected to receive around one-third of the shares, far larger than the typical 5-7% allocation in IPOs, with investors betting on Musk's track record of transforming Tesla into one of the world's most valuable companies. Some investors have gone beyond setting aside cash and have attempted to borrow additional funds in an effort to secure shares, as reported by Bloomberg. Anna Watts, a 33-year-old public relations manager from New York, has accumulated $6,500 for the offering and unsuccessfully sought an additional $5,000 from both a friend and a bank, despite the rejected loan requests.
SpaceX is set to go public on June 12, 2026 at $135 per share, with the company selling more than 555 million shares and targeting a $1.8 trillion valuation. According to The Financial Express, the offering is set to stop taking investor orders Wednesday and pricing is set for Thursday, with the expected Nasdaq debut on Friday. As reported by The Financial Express, SpaceX has reportedly received subscriptions four times over against an initial IPO target of raising $75 billion, with allotment likely to be completed by Thursday, June 11. At the listing price of $135, SpaceX's market capitalisation would touch nearly $1.8 trillion, making it the 7th most valuable company in the world and potentially surpassing Meta, Tesla, and Berkshire Hathaway. The IPO is expected to rank as the biggest ever, topping Saudi Aramco's $29.4 billion debut in 2019, with the company formally known as Space Exploration Technologies Corp. expecting to make its debut on Nasdaq and Nasdaq Texas Friday under the symbol SPCX.
Japanese investors demonstrated exceptional enthusiasm for SpaceX's record-breaking IPO, with retail investors leading the charge for the world's largest public listing. According to The Economic Times, Japanese investors were willing to subscribe to more than 1 trillion yen ($6.2 billion) worth of shares, though they ultimately secured $2.2 billion worth of stock after the IPO's completion. A Mizuho Securities spokesperson revealed that more than 1,000 Japan-based customers sought allocations of over 100 million yen ($624,500), with some investors seeking more than 10 billion yen. The strong demand mirrored global enthusiasm for Elon Musk's rocket and satellite communications company, which raised $75 billion worldwide. Customer applications to open Mizuho Securities accounts in the first third of June were four times higher than the average over the last 12 months, highlighting the unprecedented interest in the offering.
Despite the massive retail allocation, financial experts are warning that SpaceX's retail investors face significantly higher risk than typical IPO participants. According to Reuters, in a typical large IPO, retail investors are allocated no more than 10% of shares, leaving large institutional players with the vast majority. SpaceX's 30% retail allocation exposes individual investors much more to volatility and price weakness than usual. Brokerage firm Fidelity Investments recently lowered its eligibility requirement from $500,000 to just $2,000, making it easier for retail investors to participate, while Robinhood Markets, SoFi and E*Trade don't require any minimum balance. Small investors may be getting lured in, with retail flows tracker Vanda Research noting that the usual uptick in equity buying after US tax returns in April has been tepid, perhaps because some investors are raising liquidity ahead of the SpaceX IPO. Sam Grelck, equity strategy analyst at Truist Advisory Services, has tracked 30 major tech-related IPOs over the past 15 years and found that every single company suffered a significant double-digit decline within 12 months of listing, with some drawdowns as much as 90% and an average of 55%.
Despite significant investor interest with IPO demand already exceeding $150 billion, Wall Street experts are expressing skepticism about SpaceX's valuation. As reported by The Financial Express, valuation expert Aswath Damodaran, often referred to as Wall Street's "Dean of Valuation," raised his estimate of the company's equity value to about $1.3 trillion, largely due to the additional cash the IPO will bring onto the balance sheet. Even after this revision, his valuation remains roughly $500 billion below the IPO valuation. Jefferies strategist Chris Wood has raised concerns about unprecedented rule changes that could artificially boost demand post-listing. Nasdaq recently changed its rules to allow mega-cap IPOs to enter the Nasdaq-100 index after just 15 trading days, compared with the previous three-month waiting period, with minimum free-float requirements also removed. Wood noted that although only about 4.2% of SpaceX shares will be publicly tradable after the IPO, the stock will be treated as if it has a 12.7% float for Nasdaq-100 weighting purposes, potentially forcing passive index funds to buy large amounts of SpaceX stock shortly after listing. SpaceX IPO pricing is at approximately 94 times the 2025 revenue total of $18.674 billion, and 266 times the 2025 adjusted EBITDA, with forward earnings estimates indicating a P/E ratio surpassing 111, while the Magnificent Seven firms average between 25 and 30.
Financial experts are warning that the SpaceX IPO mania may signal a broader market top, though opinions remain divided on the significance. According to Reuters, Noah Weisberger, chief US equity strategist at BCA Research, notes that only about 20% of mega-IPOs coincide with market peaks. However, none of those previous mega-IPO waves can hold a candle to what we are about to see in the coming months, with SpaceX's monster IPO followed by offerings from AI darlings OpenAI and Anthropic, both expected to secure $1 trillion valuations. If SpaceX is successful, retail interest in these other mega public listings will undoubtedly skyrocket. But if it crashes and burns, individuals who plowed their savings into the biggest IPO the world has ever seen will instead be looking for cover. The timing is particularly concerning given that the average drawdown for large tech IPOs is 55% within 12 months of listing, with some experiencing as much as 90% declines. BNP Paribas Securities analysts noted that "many investors will likely anticipate that the deal size is only the tip of a supply iceberg," referring to the expected glut of AI-linked IPOs and share sales that could follow SpaceX's listing. Historical precedent shows that Facebook shares plummeted 54% from their $38 IPO price to $17.50 by September 2012, demonstrating how quickly newly public companies can experience dramatic price corrections.
