Novo Nordisk A/S raised its forecasts for the second time this year, citing higher expectations for its obesity and diabetes drug sales, though the magnitude of the increase failed to impress investors. According to reports from Essential Business Intelligence, the company said the worst drop for sales and profit will probably be 6% this year, compared with an earlier forecast of sales and profit dropping as much as 12% at constant exchange rates. The upgrade was described as "clearly not heroic" by Jared Holz, Mizuho Securities healthcare strategist, who noted that the lack of upside for Wegovy pill compared to expectations weighed on the stock. CEO Mike Doustdar sought to reassure investors that the drugmaker can rebuild its pipeline, pledging faster research and bolt-on acquisitions after the upgraded 2026 outlook failed to lift sentiment.
Wegovy pill sales of ₹2,640 crore (3.2 billion Danish kroner or $494 million) were in line with analysts' estimates but failed to live up to the hype of an obesity drug whose launch was billed the most successful in history. As reported by Essential Business Intelligence, the volume of demand for Novo's Wegovy pill was offset by lower prices, according to CEO Mike Doustdar. The company has captured about 90% of the oral obesity market and reported weekly prescriptions in the US topped 265,000 the week ending July 17. Looking forward, profitability is set to improve as patients move to the costlier higher doses and Novo continues to make its manufacturing more efficient.
Novo's shares fell as much as 7.1% in Copenhagen trading, extending the stock's decline to 11% year-to-date, according to Essential Business Intelligence. The stock decline reflects investor disappointment with the forecast upgrade, which failed to provide the upside expectations that markets had anticipated. By contrast, Eli Lilly & Co. surged after the US drugmaker boosted its forecast and reported better-than-expected earnings, with CEO Dave Ricks stating that Lilly is leading the obesity market "almost everywhere in the world."
The next-generation obesity shot CagriSema once again fell short in a study comparing it with rival Eli Lilly & Co.'s blockbuster Zepbound, marking another setback for Novo's pipeline. As reported by Essential Business Intelligence, this was the second time this year the new drug has failed to match Lilly's blockbuster, with Claus Henrik Johansen, CEO at Global Health Invest, calling it "another scratch in CagriSema's paint." The company is also facing challenges with a closely watched experimental shot intended to reduce cardiovascular risks, which failed in a late-stage study and erased Novo's share gains for the year. Looking ahead, Novo is actively seeking acquisitions to complement its existing lineup, though CEO Mike Doustdar indicated the company is not currently open to transformative deals.
