A senior Iranian source has categorically denied that Tehran has agreed to hand over its stockpile of highly enriched uranium, according to Reuters reports. The source emphasized that Iran's nuclear programme was not included in the preliminary understanding currently under discussion between Washington and Tehran. As reported by Reuters, the source stated that 'The nuclear issue will be addressed in negotiations for a final agreement and is therefore not part of the current deal'. The source further clarified that 'There has been no agreement over Iran's highly enriched uranium stockpile to be shipped out of the country'. The denial was made on Sunday, indicating the evolving nature of the discussions between the two nations. This development comes amid ongoing international pressure for Iran to comply with nuclear agreements and reduce its nuclear capabilities.
The Iranian denial has significantly impacted market confidence in a potential nuclear agreement, with market pricing reflecting decreased likelihood of uranium surrender by December 31, 2026. According to market data, the 'Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31' market currently stands at 45.5% YES, down from 49% 24 hours ago. Meanwhile, the 'Iran's Enriched Uranium Surrender by December 31, 2026' market is currently at 53.0% YES, up from 39% a day prior. Market participants are adjusting their expectations in light of Iran's firm stance, with the news classified as having high impact given the direct contradiction to the conditions required for a YES resolution. The market responses suggest that participants view the likelihood of Iran surrendering its uranium stockpile by the year's end as less likely.
The Iranian denial contradicts earlier reports suggesting Iran had agreed in principle to relinquish its uranium reserves. According to The New York Times, two US officials told the newspaper that Iran had, in principle, agreed to relinquish its stockpile of highly enriched uranium as part of a broader diplomatic framework aimed at reducing tensions in West Asia. However, the latest Reuters report indicates that Iran has denied agreeing to give up any enriched uranium in a US ceasefire deal, with sources stating they had not yet accepted any action on the nuclear issue. The conflicting statements highlight the ongoing uncertainty surrounding the nuclear negotiations between the two countries, with Iran's stance being a significant point of contention in international negotiations involving various countries and organizations seeking to ensure non-proliferation.
A significant component of the proposed Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) involves the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which would be open without tolls according to the current draft. As reported by Axios, Iran would clear the mines it had deployed there in exchange for the US lifting its blockade on Iranian ports and waiving some sanctions it had imposed, allowing the country to sell oil freely. However, Iranian media reports suggest Hossein Shariatmadari, editor-in-chief of Iran's conservative Kayhan newspaper, claimed that Iran should charge transit fees on vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz, citing Iran's territorial waters rights. The disagreement over transit fees highlights potential complications in implementing the oil trade provisions.
The MOU addresses the ongoing war in Lebanon between Israel and the Hezbollah terrorist group, with the deal specifying that the war will end, with a US official telling Axios it would not be a 'one-sided ceasefire'. The official stated that if 'Hezbollah behaves, Israel will behave', emphasizing that 'Bibi has his domestic considerations, but Trump has the interests of the US and the global economy to think about'. This provision represents a significant regional component of the proposed peace framework, addressing ongoing tensions in the Middle East beyond Iran's nuclear program.
The Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) - labeled the 'Islamabad Declaration' according to Al Arabiya, would start a 60-day ceasefire extension and include the possibility of further talks and an extension during the two-month period. If the MOU is approved by Iran's supreme national council, it will be sent to Mojtaba Khamenei for final approval. According to Axios, final negotiations regarding a peace deal will come only after both parties sign the MOU and agree to the 60-day ceasefire. One US official noted that the deal might not last the full 60 days if the US believes that Iran is not serious about the nuclear negotiations, indicating the conditional nature of the proposed agreement. Future developments in diplomatic negotiations involving Iran and key international actors like the United States and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) could further influence market prices, with any forthcoming reports from the IAEA on Iran's nuclear activities being crucial in shaping market expectations.
