Paytm shares have demonstrated remarkable recovery, surging over 410% from their lifetime low of ₹310 in May 2024 during the aftermath of RBI's crackdown on Paytm Payments Bank. The stock jumped 10% on Monday, hitting a fresh 54-month high of ₹1,598 during intraday trading, with the stock trading at ₹1,594.80 at close after opening at ₹1,445. As per The Economic Times, the shares of Paytm-parent One 97 Communications have recovered over 410% from their lowest levels, with investors now eyeing the stock's IPO level which is around 36% away. The stock has demonstrated strong performance with 18.74% gains in the past month and 21.82% over six months, though it remains down 37.06% over the past year. This is the first time the Noida-based fintech has received a target price higher than its debut price of ₹2,150 a share when it made its stock market debut in November 2018. As many as 9 million shares changed hands on the NSE during the trading session, indicating strong investor interest. The stock has risen over 15% year-to-date and over 41% in the last 12 months, with the biggest intraday gain recorded during the session.
Bernstein has raised Paytm's price target to ₹2,200 from ₹1,500 earlier, marking the first time the brokerage has set a target higher than the company's IPO price of ₹2,150. The target implies an upside of 38% from Monday's closing price and the brokerage maintains its 'outperform' rating while incorporating MDR introduction on UPI transactions into its base case estimates for FY28 onwards. According to The Economic Times, the brokerage expects MDR to improve Paytm's net payments margin by around 3-4 basis points, resulting in an estimated 30% increase in FY30 EPS compared with its previous forecasts. The brokerage also raised its FY30E EPS estimate by around 30% to ₹106 and forecasts Paytm's GMV to rise from ₹30.9 trillion in FY27E to ₹56.6 trillion by FY30E. For IPO investors, the ₹2,150 level is getting closer, but redemption should not be assumed yet, as analysts note that the key is whether Paytm can sustain above ₹1,350–1,400; holding this zone would keep the larger recovery story intact. According to SBI Securities, the uptrend in Paytm shares is likely to continue as long as the stock sustains above the ₹1,440–1,450 zone.
Over the weekend, the government clarified that consumers will not have to pay charges for UPI transactions, with Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman stating on Thursday that MDR on digital transactions applies to merchants and not customers. According to CNBC-TV-18, if MDR is introduced, it would apply only to select merchant transactions above a certain threshold. The focus on UPI MDR comes at a time when the Taxation and Other Laws (Amendment) Bill, 2026, was passed in the Lok Sabha last week, which amends the Payment and Settlement Systems Act, 2007, allowing the government to decide which digital payment methods remain free and which can attract charges. UPI clocked 23.65 billion transactions worth ₹29.87 trillion in July, growing from 20 billion transactions with a value of ₹24.85 trillion in July 2025. The Ministry of Finance said on Saturday that consumers making UPI payments will not face any transaction charges and that any MDR fee levied on merchants will be 'nominal'. This comes after the Lok Sabha passed The Taxation and Other Laws (Amendment) Bill, 2026, which could allow banks and payment system providers to charge fees on UPI and RuPay debit card payments.
Paytm reported robust Q1 FY27 earnings with consolidated revenue growing to ₹2,448 crore from ₹1,918 crore in June 2025, representing a 28% year-on-year increase. The company's net profit surged to ₹220 crore in June 2026 from ₹122.10 crore in June 2025, while Earnings Per Share (EPS) rose to ₹3.44 from ₹1.92 in the corresponding period. The company's total income for the quarter stood at ₹2,630 crore, up 22% from ₹2,159 crore a year ago and higher than ₹2,442 crore reported in the previous quarter. On a sequential basis, revenue increased 8% from ₹2,264 crore in the March quarter. In April-June, One97 posted a profit of ₹212 crore, noting that its Payment Processing Margin had 'structurally improved' to over 4 basis points due to higher growth in profitable MDR-bearing instruments such as credit cards on UPI and credit line on UPI (Postpaid), among other factors. The company has shown consistent revenue growth from ₹4,974.20 crore in 2022 to ₹8,437 crore in 2026, with a significant turnaround as it turned profitable in 2026 with a net profit of ₹554 crore, compared to a loss of ₹665.70 crore in 2025.
Paytm is the third-largest app in terms of the number of UPI transactions it handles, with the company processing 1.8 billion UPI transactions worth ₹1.9 lakh crore in June. However, it remains significantly behind top-ranked PhonePe (10.5 billion transactions) and second-placed Google Pay (7.4 billion transactions). UPI transactions have not faced any MDR so far, but to help with the costs of running the payments infrastructure, the government has been subsidising UPI payments of up to ₹2,000 made to only small merchants. The government subsidy is capped at 0.15% of the transaction value and is shared between banks, payment service providers and third-party app providers. The Centre paid out ₹8,730 crore under the incentive scheme from 2021-22 to 2024-25, but this was only 11% of the cost incurred by the payment industry. MDR is a fee levied on merchants by banks to help meet costs related to processing of transactions, settlement and infrastructure, with credit cards facing an MDR of 1-3% of transaction value while it is up to 0.9% for debit cards.
Paytm has demonstrated remarkable recovery, rebounding 70% from its March 2026 lows and finishing each of the last four months in the green. The stock has gained another 18% so far in the current month, extending its winning streak. Investor sentiment towards the fintech major has improved as regulatory headwinds that had weighed on the stock over the past two years have gradually eased. This has improved earnings visibility, while the company's plans to launch new products have further strengthened optimism on the Street. Following the Reserve Bank of India's restrictions on Paytm Payments Bank in 2024, the company shifted its focus towards its core payments and financial services distribution businesses. It has also been driving growth by onboarding higher-quality merchants and expanding fee-based, scalable revenue streams. The company expects to deliver stronger growth in FY27 than in the previous financial year, supported by gains in merchant and consumer payments market share and continued expansion of its financial services distribution business. It also expects margins to improve, aided by tighter control over indirect costs such as marketing and software expenses. In the longer term, Paytm shares have jumped over 49% in one year and 85% in three years, with the stock currently having a market capitalisation of ₹1.02 lakh crore.
