The Election Commission of India will announce results on Monday, May 4, 2026, following the conclusion of assembly elections in West Bengal, Assam, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Puducherry in April 2026. According to reports from ET Now, exit polls suggest a possible BJP edge in West Bengal with TMC projected at 122-142 seats and BJP at 141-164 seats, requiring a majority of 148 seats. In contrast, the 2021 West Bengal elections saw TMC secure a third consecutive term with actual results showing TMC at 216 seats versus BJP at 77.
In 2021, the Sensex fell sharply following the election outcome though it recovered partially by session close, as reported by ET Now. For 2026, market movement remains to be observed with experts anticipating short-term volatility before clearer market direction emerges. In the 2021 elections, PSU stocks declined by around 2-3% on result day, while analysts expect sectoral volatility depending on the final outcome for 2026. The 2021 result was viewed by markets as a potential setback for reform momentum, while a possible BJP victory in 2026 is being interpreted as a potential trigger for policy shifts.
According to ET Now exit polls, Tamil Nadu shows DMK+ at 112-129 seats versus AIADMK+ at 86-103, requiring 118 seats for majority. Assam projects BJP+ at 87-99 seats versus Congress+ at 23-33, needing 64 seats for majority. Kerala estimates UDF at 72 versus LDF at 63, with NDA at 3 seats and majority mark at 71. Puducherry polls show NDA at 19 versus DMK+ Cong at 8, requiring 16 seats for majority.
Indian stock markets experienced sharp cuts on Thursday, with Nifty declining 180.10 points (0.74%) to finish at 23,997.55 and Sensex plunging 582.86 points (0.75%) to settle at 76,913.50, as reported by The Economic Times. The volatility gauge India VIX ended at 18.46, down by 5.86% from the previous closing. Selling pressure was observed in FMCG, bank, and auto stocks, with broader market breadth showing mildly positive sentiment as 2,051 stocks witnessed advances versus 2,606 declines out of 4,337 stocks that traded on Thursday.
As reported by ET Now, in 2021, exit polls significantly underestimated TMC's dominance with poll averages projecting TMC at 155 seats and BJP at 126, while actual results saw TMC surge to 216 seats. Markets stabilised within the same trading session in 2021, contrasting with 2026 expectations of short-term volatility before recovery. The 2021 result was viewed as a potential setback for reform momentum, while 2026 outcomes are being interpreted as potential policy triggers. This week, markets are expected to initially react to the outcome of state elections, particularly in West Bengal, which could trigger 1-2 days of volatility.
