Stock markets are expected to be guided this week by the outcome of state elections and high crude oil prices amid the West Asia conflict, according to market analysts. Vote counting for five assembly elections in West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Assam, and Puducherry will begin on Monday, May 4. As reported by CNBC TV18 and The Times of India, Hariprasad K, Research Analyst and Founder of Livelong Wealth, highlighted that investors will closely watch whether the ruling party at the Centre can wrest West Bengal from Trinamool Congress and make meaningful inroads into opposition-ruled Kerala and Tamil Nadu, where the Bharatiya Janata Party currently has limited presence. Last week, in a holiday-shortened session, the BSE Sensex gained 249.29 points or 0.32%, while the NSE Nifty rose 99.6 points or 0.41%.
Crude oil remains the single most critical macro variable for market movements, according to Hariprasad K. With Brent prices sustaining elevated levels amid ongoing tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, inflation risks remain pronounced for an import-dependent economy like India. As reported by CNBC TV18 and The Times of India, persistently high crude prices exert pressure on the rupee—currently near record lows—and weigh on corporate margins as well as fiscal dynamics. Ajit Mishra, SVP Research at Religare Broking Ltd, noted that crude oil price trends will remain the primary external variable, with the ongoing US–Iran standoff and closure of the Strait of Hormuz likely to keep volatility elevated. Markets are expected to remain volatile and heavily news-driven, with key attention on the evolving US–Iran dynamic, particularly whether the ceasefire holds and progress of diplomatic talks.
In a holiday-shortened last week, the BSE benchmark Sensex climbed 249.29 points or 0.32 per cent, and the NSE Nifty went up by 99.6 points or 0.41 per cent. According to CNBC TV18 and The Times of India, key macroeconomic data releases include the HSBC Manufacturing PMI on May 4, Services and Composite PMI on May 6, and foreign exchange reserves data on May 8. Major corporate earnings announcements this week are from Ambuja Cements, BHEL, Hero MotoCorp, Mahindra & Mahindra and Bajaj Auto. The Q4 earnings season will continue this week, with stock and sector-specific movements likely to continue alongside FII flows and rupee movements.
Markets are expected to remain volatile and heavily news-driven, with key attention on the evolving US–Iran dynamic, particularly whether the ceasefire holds and progress of diplomatic talks. As reported by CNBC TV18 and The Times of India, Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, noted that any fresh surge in oil could exert renewed selling pressure on Indian equities, while a sustained decline would likely improve sentiment. Santosh Meena, Head of Research at Swastika Investmart Ltd, expects markets to initially react to the outcome of state elections, particularly in West Bengal, which could trigger 1-2 days of volatility. The major focus will remain on crude oil prices, which have cooled slightly after surging towards USD 120 per barrel, with developments around US-Iran relations being a critical driver of crude volatility. With the Q4 earnings season in full swing, stock and sector-specific movements are likely to continue alongside FII flows and rupee movements.
