The Indian equity markets are expected to witness a pivotal session as they reopen after a holiday-shortened week on Monday, May 4. According to ET Now reports, the benchmark indices closed in the red last week, with persistent selling from foreign institutional investors (FIIs) and higher crude prices weighing on market sentiment. Stock markets were closed on Friday, May 1, for Maharashtra Day. New catalysts, including assembly elections in five states – West Bengal, Assam, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Puducherry – along with a retreat in Wall Street's main indices, are expected to set the stage for a volatile start. However, recent market sentiment indicators show meaningful improvement, with India VIX settling in the 17-18 range over the final trading days of April, down from elevated 20-22 levels seen during peak US-Iran fear in February and March. This signals that institutional hedging costs have eased and options market participants are no longer paying panic premiums.
At close on Thursday, April 30, the 30-share BSE Sensex tumbled 582.86 points or 0.75% to settle at 76,913.50. During the day, it plunged 1,237.5 points, or 1.59%, to 76,258.86, but recovered some losses in the second half of the session. The barometer dropped 0.97% during the week. Among the 30-Sensex firms on Thursday, Eternal, Hindustan Unilever, Tata Steel, Larsen & Toubro, UltraTech Cement and Mahindra & Mahindra were the major laggards, while Sun Pharma, Infosys, Bajaj Finance and Adani Ports were among the gainers. For the full month of April, the Nifty delivered a strong 5.81% gain, the best monthly performance for Indian equities since late 2024, providing a solid foundation for current market predictions.
According to SEBI-registered analyst Vipin Dixena, the Sensex continues to remain trapped in a broad sideways range between 77,450 resistance and 76,450 support, with price currently hovering near the midpoint and getting resistance from the 50 EMA. Hitesh Tailor, Technical Research Analyst at Choice Broking, noted that the index opened gap down by around 230 points and witnessed selling pressure, slipping to an intraday low of 76,258.86. From a technical perspective, Tailor said the index continues to trade in a volatile consolidation range, with immediate support placed in the 76,000–76,200 zone and resistance seen around 77,500–77,700. However, recent technical analysis suggests the Nifty is near its 50-day moving average after the April rally, with a sustained move above 24,200 on Monday potentially shifting technical momentum to mildly bullish. The RSI on the Nifty daily chart is approaching 55-60, signalling a near-overbought zone for an index that has already rallied 5.81% in a month.
The Indian rupee plunged to a record low of ₹95.33 on Thursday as investors grew increasingly concerned about the economic risks posed by a sharp surge in crude oil prices to 2022 highs. The surge in oil to $125 and above levels has raised fears over India's inflation-growth balance, given its dependence on energy imports, while also weighing on capital flows. Immediate resistance is placed at ₹95–₹95.20, with a sustained breakout above this range potentially pushing the rupee to fresh all-time lows. On the downside, ₹94.50 serves as immediate support, while ₹94.30–₹94 marks a stronger support zone in case of near-term consolidation. Meanwhile, crude oil futures fell sharply on Friday from 4-year highs after Iran signalled a proposal to resume negotiations with the U.S., though prices remained on track for weekly gains as Tehran continued to block the Strait of Hormuz and the U.S. Navy maintained restrictions on Iranian crude exports. Brent crude for July settled at $108.17 per barrel, down $2.23 or 2.02%, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) closed at $101.94, declining $3.13 or 2.98%.
In broader markets, the BSE MidCap Select index dropped 0.84% and the BSE SmallCap Select index declined 0.58% on Thursday. Among sectoral indices, Metal tanked the most by 2.13%, followed by PSU Bank (1.66%), Realty (1.44%), Commodities (1.36%), FMCG (1.13%), Financial Services (1.08%) and Industrials (1.05%). A total of 2,532 stocks declined, while 1,649 advanced and 156 remained unchanged on the BSE, as reported by ET Now. Recent sectoral performance shows Nifty Metal leading losses on April 30, declining 2.12%, driven by global commodity weakness and FII selling in cyclical sectors. Nifty PSU Bank fell 1.68%, while HUL and the broader FMCG sector held up positively on strong Q4 FY26 results showing six percent volume growth. Broader indices showed divergence with the benchmark indices during the week, as the Nifty Midcap100 only dipped 0.28% while Nifty Smallcap100 gained 1.62%.
Global markets provided positive cues with the S&P 500 hitting a fresh record of 7,230.12 on Friday, while the Nasdaq reached a new all-time high at 25,114.44. Brent crude eased to approximately $108 per barrel on Friday, declining over 2% on Iran's peace proposal. The Gift Nifty was trading 0.97% above the last Nifty close, signalling a gap-up open near the 24,200 level. However, FII net selling reached approximately ₹59,619 crore for the full month of April, creating a structural headwind. Market analysts recommend a cautious approach, suggesting traders wait for the first 30 minutes of price action before entering positions, with 23,900 as the key stop-loss for Nifty-linked longs. The most likely leadership sectors for Monday are Information Technology and FMCG, while avoiding fresh longs in metals and PSU banks until clear FII buying reversal materializes. Amid persistent global uncertainties and mixed domestic cues, investors are advised to adopt a cautious and selective approach, with momentum indicators currently neutral to slightly weak reflecting a lack of strong conviction in the near term.
