Indian stock markets ended the previous week on a strong note, with benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty witnessing a sharp rally supported by easing geopolitical concerns and improving global sentiment. According to latest reports from Zee News, the Nifty gained 1.10 per cent to close at 23,622.90, while the Sensex rose 1.73 per cent to settle at 75,527.95. The indices broke a two-week losing streak amid improving investor sentiment, with the BSE Sensex surging 1,284.61 points, or 1.73 per cent, and the NSE Nifty surging 256.2 points, or 1 per cent in the latest session. GIFT Nifty was trading at 23,958 at around 8:15 am, up 67 points or 0.28 per cent, signaling a mildly positive opening for Tuesday's session. Market experts suggest that markets may continue to remain volatile due to global developments and economic data, but the overall undertone still looks positive as long as crude prices stay under control and institutional buying continues. As per HDFC SKY, the upcoming week will see economic data rolling out from China, Japan and the US, as well as the G7 summit, influencing market sentiment. On the corporate front, Brigade Enterprises' bonus issue, Cyient's buyback, Reliance Industries' 49th AGM, and several dividend and AGM-related stock-specific events will remain on radar.
Another major event that investors will track is the US Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting scheduled for June 17, 2026. As reported by Goodreturns, the US central bank is broadly expected to keep interest rates unchanged while maintaining a cautious approach due to persistent inflation concerns and uncertainties surrounding economic growth. According to Zee News, while the Fed is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged, investors will closely scrutinise the central bank's commentary on inflation, economic growth and the future rate trajectory. Investors will closely analyse the Federal Reserve's policy commentary, inflation projections, growth outlook, and signals on future interest rate cuts. According to HDFC SKY, investors will parse comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell for further clarity on the central bank's policy outlook. The outcome of the FOMC meeting could influence global liquidity, investor sentiment, and foreign fund flows into emerging markets, including India. Additionally, weekly unemployment claims data will offer a timely gauge of conditions in the US labour market. This week's meeting will be particularly significant as it marks the first meeting under new chairman Kevin Warsh, making his stance on future interest rate paths a key focus for global markets. However, recent analysis suggests the Fed could catch the market offside with a more hawkish stance, with markets having repriced significantly since March - Fed funds futures now trading around 3.80% for 2026, 3.90% for 2027, and 4.05% for 2028. According to Bajaj Broking Research, the index structure continues to show a positive bias despite intermittent profit booking at higher levels, with the index formed a bearish candle with a higher high and a higher low and a bullish gap below its base signaling positive bias and mild profit booking at higher levels around the 24,000 levels.
Geopolitical developments in West Asia will remain on investors' radar as market sentiment received a boost after US President Donald Trump said a peace agreement with Iran aimed at ending the conflict in the region would be signed on Sunday. However, the initial optimism surrounding the US-Iran agreement has moderated as market participants await clarity on the framework and timeline for restoring normal shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. As per Moneycontrol, while both countries have endorsed a preliminary understanding, details of the agreement have not yet been made public and a permanent truce is yet to be finalised. The reopening of the strategically important Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for global oil shipments, is expected to ease concerns over supply disruptions. Any further improvement in regional stability could support risk appetite across global equity markets. Crude oil prices rebounded modestly after Monday's sharp selloff, with Brent crude futures rising 0.3 per cent to around $83.4 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude traded above $81 per barrel. The recovery follows a nearly 5 per cent drop in crude prices on Monday after US President Donald Trump announced a framework agreement aimed at ending the conflict and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. According to Business Standard, recent geopolitical developments, which everyone expects to lead to a peace deal between the US and Iran, have led to a sharp correction in the price of Brent crude. For a big oil importer like India, this is a huge positive, as noted by V K Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments Limited. Sustained moderation in oil prices could provide relief to India's inflation outlook and reduce pressure on the country's import bill.
Besides the Fed meeting, investors will keenly track inflation data, the US Fed interest rate decision, and trends in crude oil prices to determine further movement, according to Religare Broking Ltd. On the domestic front, investors will monitor the release of May WPI inflation data, as noted by Ajit Mishra, SVP Research at Religare Broking Ltd. Pravesh Gour, Senior Technical Analyst at Swastika Investmart Ltd, said, on the domestic front, the progress of the monsoon season and inflation trends will remain key areas of focus. The status of the US-Iran deal signing on Sunday, trading activity of foreign investors and movement in global markets would also drive sentiments in domestic equities, experts noted. Markets are likely to remain highly sensitive to developments surrounding the proposed US-Iran agreement, with foreign institutional investors purchasing equities worth ₹200 crore on June 15, snapping a 13-session selling streak. With the latest purchases, total withdrawals by Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) from Indian equities have surged to ₹2.87 lakh crore so far in 2026, surpassing the ₹1.66 lakh crore pulled out during the entire calendar year 2025, according to data from the National Securities Depository Ltd (NSDL). Domestic institutional investors remained supportive, buying equities worth ₹3,189 crore during the session, as reported by Moneycontrol.
From a technical perspective, the Nifty has formed a strong support base near the 23,070 level and has managed to close decisively above its 20-day moving average, indicating improving near-term momentum. According to Pravesh Gour, Senior Technical Analyst at Swastika Investmart Ltd, immediate resistance is placed at 23,725 and 23,800, with a sustained breakout above 23,800 mark opening the path toward 24,000 and subsequently 24,200. On the downside, support levels are seen at 23,250 and 23,150, and maintaining these levels will be critical for preserving the current bullish structure. As per HDFC SKY, markets will watch manufacturing readings for signs of expansion or slowdown in the industrial sector amid evolving trade and demand conditions. The Nifty, however, faced immediate resistance near the psychologically important 24,000 mark during the latest session, as noted by Bajaj Broking Research. According to Bajaj Broking Research, the index continues to sustain above the 20- & 50-days EMA, with volatility likely to be high in Tuesday's session on account of the Nifty weekly F&O expiry. "The United States and Iran have reportedly signed a preliminary agreement, with U.S. President Donald Trump and Iran's lead negotiator endorsing a framework that could pave the way for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz," said Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, adding that the agreement is being seen as a major step towards regional stability and has strengthened confidence across global financial markets by reducing concerns over energy supply disruptions and broader geopolitical uncertainty. A sustained move above 24,000 could strengthen bullish momentum and pave the way for further gains towards the 24,200-24,400 zone, according to Ponmudi R.
Bank Nifty continues to show stronger momentum compared with the broader market and remains in a favourable technical setup. As noted by Gour, the immediate resistance zone is located between 57,000 and 57,450, while a decisive move above this range could pave the way for a rally towards 57,500. Key support levels are placed at 56,000 and 55,555, and holding above these zones will be essential to sustain the ongoing bullish momentum. The recent market rebound has been largely supported by optimism surrounding a potential US-Iran agreement, with a formal peace agreement potentially further strengthening global risk sentiment. Banking stocks were the biggest support for the market recovery last week, with the Bank NIFTY surging nearly 3% on Friday, with all 14 constituents ending in the green. AU Small Finance Bank led the gains with a 5.7% rise, followed by IDFC First Bank, which gained 5.6%. HDFC Bank will trade ex-dividend for a final dividend of ₹13 per share, while Capital Small Finance Bank will trade ex-dividend for a final dividend of ₹5 per share. Bank Nifty also reflected a consolidation phase after a sharp recent rally, with the index witnessing mild profit booking in the second half around the high of April 2026 placed around 57,456. The index has seen a strong rally of 4,800 points in the last 10 sessions, hence some consolidation cannot be ruled out in the coming sessions, according to Bajaj Broking Research. "We expect the index to maintain overall positive bias and head towards 58,300 levels in the coming sessions being the measuring implication of the last four-week range breakout (52,700-55,500)", with Bajaj Broking Research noting that index sustaining above 55,500, will keep the overall bias positive and any dips should be viewed as buying opportunities.
