The 24-hour period between market closing on Friday, July 17, and Saturday, July 18 could prove decisive for Indian markets this week, with at least 35% of the Nifty 50 index weightage reporting June quarter results. According to CNBC TV18, this concentrated reporting period includes heavyweights like Reliance Industries, HDFC Bank, and ICICI Bank, making it the most consequential period for stock market trajectory. While Reliance Industries will report results after market closing hours on Friday, the real action takes place on Saturday with nearly every banking heavyweight reporting their numbers. As of Friday's closing, Reliance Industries had a 9% weightage on the Nifty 50 index, while HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank had 11.39% and 9.05% weightage respectively. Axis Bank and Kotak Mahindra Bank had weightage of 3.43% and nearly 2% respectively, with Yes Bank also reporting on Saturday. These four names are significant parts of the Nifty Bank index, which has been an outperformer compared to the Nifty 50 index in recent times.
Indian equities ended the week on a mixed note with BSE Sensex declining 0.25% to close at 77,569 and NSE Nifty 50 also falling 0.26% to settle at 24,206.90. According to reports from The Economic Times, the India VIX declined another 8% to 12.33, signalling easing volatility expectations. The Nifty closed at 24,072 on Thursday, ending the day almost unchanged after profit booking during afternoon sessions wiped out early gains. As per CNBC TV18, the choppy movement extended into a third consecutive session, with the index failing to hold onto early gains despite opening positively and briefly climbing close to the week's high. The initial rally to multi-week highs was tempered by renewed geopolitical concerns following fresh comments by US President Donald Trump on Iran, which pushed crude oil prices higher and triggered profit booking. Despite the weekly decline, buying at lower levels helped limit the overall loss, with both indices showing resilience in volatile trading conditions.
The June quarter earnings season gathers pace this week with 143 companies scheduled to announce their results between Monday and Saturday. As reported by The Economic Times, heavyweights including Reliance Industries, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, Axis Bank, Wipro and HCL Technologies will be in focus, with investors closely tracking management commentary and brokerage reactions for cues on the road ahead. Positive results from TCS and Indian Bank have already improved sentiment in the IT and banking sectors respectively. The upcoming week will see earnings from several companies including HCL Technologies, Tech Mahindra, Union Bank, and Federal Bank. As per Business Standard, analysts emphasize that management commentary expected to play a pivotal role in shaping sectoral trends and earnings expectations during the current earnings season. HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, Axis Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank will all be reporting their quarterly earnings on Saturday, and will react to those only on Monday, July 20. The street will await more clarity on asset quality, Net Interest Margins (NIMs), how much have they managed to utilise the FCNR (B) window, and whether they have seen any untoward rise in slippages.
Besides earnings, macroeconomic factors will significantly influence market sentiment this week. India's Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation will be released on Monday, July 13, followed by the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) on Tuesday, July 14, as reported by The Economic Times. According to Ajit Mishra, SVP, Research, Religare Broking Ltd, investors will closely monitor June CPI inflation, WPI inflation, and the latest foreign exchange reserves. The monsoon trend will also be closely watched, given its implications for rural demand and inflation. In the US, CPI inflation data on Tuesday, July 14 and producer price inflation data on Wednesday, July 15 will be closely watched, as they could influence expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's policy outlook. As per Business Standard, these macroeconomic factors will remain important triggers for market participants alongside the ongoing earnings season.
Crude oil prices will remain a key monitorable after fresh concerns over the US-Iran conflict have once again pushed prices higher, creating uncertainty for markets worldwide. According to The Economic Times, Brent crude gained more than 5% while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose over 4% after the United States launched fresh strikes on Iran, which vowed a decisive response. Higher crude oil prices generally weigh on Indian markets because the country imports a large portion of its crude oil requirement, with rising oil prices increasing inflationary pressures and widening the trade deficit. As per Goodreturns, there was no major red flag on the domestic front this week, with the West Asia crisis resurfacing as the only real overhang following Trump's remarks on Iran. According to Business Standard, globally, developments surrounding the US-Iran situation will remain crucial, particularly for their impact on crude oil prices. The upcoming week is likely to remain volatile amid the ongoing tensions in the Middle East, which has rattled global markets since late February.
Market experts provide mixed technical outlooks for Friday's session, with Nagaraj Shetti of HDFC Securities suggesting the Nifty is likely to witness a bounce towards 24,200 and 24,600 as long as it holds above key support levels of 24,000 and 23,800. Hitesh Rathi of Angel One believes the index remains capped near 24,300 on the upside, while 24,000 is the immediate support. Vatsal Bhuva of LKP Securities expects strong support in the 23,950-24,000 zone, with 24,250-24,300 acting as immediate resistance. Sunny Agrawal of SBI Securities notes the 50-day EMA zone of 23,960-23,930 will serve as immediate support, with a sustained break below 23,930 potentially triggering further profit booking towards 23,780. Given the current technical setup, experts recommend a buy-on-dips near support and sell-on-rise near resistance strategy.
