Indian stock markets closed higher on Monday with Nifty rising 0.8% to settle at 24,092.70, according to latest reports from Livemint. The benchmark index demonstrated resilience amid positive global sentiment and sector-specific developments. However, Gift Nifty is trading around 24,124 level, indicating a positive but cautious start of nearly 170 points from the Nifty futures' previous close, suggesting a mildly positive opening for Tuesday's session. Analysts anticipate markets are expected to maintain their gradual upward trend, supported by hopes of a resolution and positive global cues driving broader market action.
Options traders are baking in a near 900-point range for Nifty from Tuesday's closing of 23,995.70 over the next one week, per exchange data reported by Mint. Traders expect the Nifty to trade in a 23,558–24,442 range until next Tuesday, based on the volume weighted average price per share (65 shares make one contract) of the 24,000 call and put options expiring on 5 May. As per Equirus quant analyst Kruti Shah, the price of the 24,000 straddle indicates a rangebound market after the smart rally from the March to April derivatives expiry. Shah expects upside pressure to set in around 24,550–24,600, which coincides with the market high of 21 April — 24,601.7 — after which the index corrected 2.5% to Tuesday's close.
The market dynamics depend heavily on oil movements and conflict developments, with oil prices rising 44% to $104.42 a barrel on 28 April following the Iran war that began at February-end. However, both sides agreed to a ceasefire since 7 April, which has been extended indefinitely. The UAE's exit from OPEC on Monday adds another layer of complexity to oil market dynamics. As per Kotak Mahindra AMC MD Nilesh Shah, the single-most important variable for markets will be oil, as that would reflect the collective wisdom of all newsflows related to the fallout from the conflict. Market veterans suggest that any further upside will depend on how energy prices move after these developments.
Technical analysis suggests the index might continue to face resistance at 24,115–24,150 levels, as reported by The Economic Times. A decisive move above 24,150 is required to witness a sustained rally towards higher levels. On the lower end, support is placed at 24,000, below which weakness might increase. The India VIX, which measures market fear, fell 6% to settle at 18.38 levels, indicating reduced volatility expectations. Market experts continue to advocate a stock-specific approach, focusing on sectors and themes showing strength — particularly energy, metals, capital markets, and pharma while closely tracking earnings developments and geopolitical cues for further direction. Multiple research notes flagged key zones with Nifty support at 23,800-23,700 and resistance at 24,000-24,200, while Bank Nifty support is at 56,400 then 55,750-55,600, with resistance at 56,800-57,000.
Foreign portfolio investors have been the biggest sellers since the start of the year, offloading ₹2 trillion in the cash market in the calendar year through Friday, as reported by Mint. This represents a significant increase from the previous session's ₹8,828 crore outflow. On the other hand, domestic institutional investors provided strong support by purchasing shares worth ₹4,701 crore during the same session. The rupee appreciated by 0.14% to close at 94.25 against the US dollar on April 24, indicating some resilience in the domestic currency. With the rupee showing strength and domestic support, flows are likely to remain an important daily driver. FII net selling for April stood at ₹44,281 crore, with the combination of global uncertainty and local growth concerns setting the tone for profit booking.
