Indian stock markets are expected to remain range-bound in the near term, with Nifty likely to oscillate between 23,500 and 24,500 levels according to latest market analysis. This comes as geopolitical risks remain unresolved and inflation concerns continue to linger, creating a mixed bias for the market. The Nifty 50 settled at 24,177.65 points, up 0.8% on Wednesday, while the BSE Sensex closed 609.45 points higher at 77,496.36 points despite Brent crude prices surging to $115 per barrel - their highest level since 2022. As per Geojit Investments Limited, the risk associated with selling during a rally is particularly pertinent in the short term should the global crisis continue, with return expectations for FY27 suggesting a potential 8-12% upside from current levels contingent on stabilization in crude prices and easing global uncertainties.
Heavyweight stocks led the market surge, with ITC, Reliance Industries and Tech Mahindra rising 3-4% each on Wednesday, as reported by ANI. Gaurav Sharma, head of research at Globe Capital Market, noted that despite crude prices remaining elevated near $115 on Wednesday, markets traded higher, supported by strong earnings from index heavyweights. The strong earnings cues from major companies provided the primary catalyst for the market's upward movement during the session. However, some stocks faced pressure with Indigo, Dr. Reddy's Laboratories and NTPC falling around 3% each. Corporate America has shown remarkable resilience against the Iran conflict, with 81% of S&P 500 companies beating earnings expectations as slightly more than one-third of sectors have already reported profits. According to Geojit Investments, 119 companies from the broader Nifty 500 universe recorded a robust 12% YoY growth in net profit - one of the strongest growth rates in recent quarters, providing fundamental cushion to equity markets.
Among the sectoral indices, Nifty Auto, Nifty FMCG, and Nifty Realty were the biggest gainers, rising around 1% each, according to ANI reports. The broader market sentiment showed improvement with Nifty's Volatility Index, or VIX, falling 3.4% to 17.4 levels at close, indicating some relief among market participants. However, some profit taking was observed ahead of the end of the truncated week, as equity markets will remain shut Friday on account of Maharashtra Day. Market experts noted that the positive close came even as Asian markets showed mixed trends and Wall Street ended lower overnight. According to Geojit Investments, banking and financial services earnings momentum has been in-line with a mixed view due to good credit growth but a fall in NIMs, while metals benefited from rising commodity prices triggered by global supply disruptions. Oil marketing and refining companies emerged as laggards, with major players reporting a decline in profitability due to margin pressures linked to volatile crude dynamics.
According to The Economic Times, the Nifty ended the week with a modest gain of 99.60 points (+0.42%) while trading within a narrow range of 587.85 points. The India VIX declined by 6.35% to 18.46, indicating some decline in hedging activity despite the range-bound move. From a structural standpoint, the Nifty continues to remain in a broad consolidation zone, with prices hovering near the lower half of its intermediate range. The index is currently dealing with an important zone around the 23,900–24,000 area, which is acting as an immediate equilibrium level. The weekly RSI stands at 44.16, remaining neutral and showing no visible divergence against price, while the weekly MACD remains below its signal line with the histogram still in negative territory. Nifty 50 continues to trade with a cautious undertone, hovering around the 24,000–24,100 zone after a mild recovery, with immediate resistance seen in the 24,300–24,400 range.
With votes set to be counted on Monday in West Bengal, Assam, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Puducherry, traders are preparing for a politically charged start to the week. However, analysts say investors may be better off watching crude oil, foreign fund flows and technical levels than getting carried away by early election trends. Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) remained net sellers for the tenth straight month in April, offloading around ₹70,100 crore worth of Indian equities. So far in calendar 2026, overseas investors have pulled nearly ₹2.4 lakh crore from local equities, pressured by a weaker rupee, rising US yields and crude oil hovering above $110 a barrel amid the Iran conflict. Domestic institutions have partly cushioned the blow, pumping in ₹51,000 crore in April, but analysts say Monday's election outcome is unlikely to change the bigger market narrative. According to Geojit Investments, India's one year forward P/E stands at 18.5x, marginally below 5yr average, supporting the market's resilience. The IT sector presents a relatively muted near-term outlook due to global macroeconomic uncertainty and cautious client spending, while banking continues to be a preferred segment supported by healthy balance sheets and stable credit growth.
