Market analysts expect the Nifty 50 to break its expiry jinx and close above the 24,000 mark in August after five straight monthly settlements below that level, according to reports from The Economic Times. The bellwether index has consistently ended below 24,000 since the West Asia war began, settling between 22,331.4 and 23,985.35 despite exceeding it intra-month. The Nifty settled at 25,424.65 at the February expiry but has since failed to maintain levels above 24,000, with recent settlements at 23,985.35 on July 7 and 23,865.75 on June 30 amid geopolitical uncertainty.
The latest developments show Iran-backed Iraqi Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) reported at least 20 members killed and 32 wounded in US-Saudi strikes targeting several bases across Iraq early Wednesday, according to Reuters. Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani has called an urgent security meeting following the reported strikes. The US Embassy in Baghdad has urged American citizens in Iraq to remain on high alert, warning of possible travel disruptions and sudden airspace closures. Meanwhile, Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan held talks with counterparts from Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain, calling for efforts to de-escalate regional tensions while stressing the need to safeguard freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb Strait.
The two sides signed a 60-day interim ceasefire on June 17, but it came apart earlier this month over differences on control of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which transports a fifth of global oil supply annually, as reported by The Economic Times. Brent crude, which surged 66% from February to $120.34 a barrel on March 30, cooled to $79 a barrel on June 17 amid rising ceasefire hopes but has since surged 21% to $95 a barrel on July 23 after fighting resumed. A pause in fighting since then, amid the possibility of renewed talks, caused crude to retreat to $84 as of Wednesday.
Foreign portfolio investors are currently in a wait-and-watch mode but cannot avoid India's structural long-term growth story, according to Sundeep Sikka, MD & CEO of Nippon Life India Asset Management, as reported by The Economic Times. Japanese investors remain bullish on India from a long-term perspective. FPI cash market selling intensity has declined significantly this month, with net sales of ₹2,126 crore, down from ₹53,958 crore last month. Since March, coinciding with the war, FPIs have net sold shares worth ₹2.77 trillion, against mutual fund-led domestic institutional investor buying of ₹3.96 trillion.
