The GIFT Nifty July 2026 futures are currently trading around 24,064 level, indicating a gap-down opening of approximately 200 points for Nifty, as reported by The Hindu BusinessLine. This muted opening comes after the Indian equity markets ended flat with a positive bias on Monday amid high volatility as crude oil prices remained elevated on escalating US-Iran war tensions. The Sensex rose 47 points, or 0.06%, to close at 77,616, while the Nifty 50 advanced 4 points, or 0.02%, higher at 24,211. However, on Friday, the Indian stock market ended with strong gains, led by a broad-based rally across sectors, with the Sensex jumping 827.57 points, or 1.08%, to close at 77,569.39 and the Nifty 50 settling 244.10 points, or 1.02%, higher at 24,206.90. According to The Hindu BusinessLine, signals from Asian stocks are also mixed, with Asian markets trading lower tracking sharp jump in crude prices amid simmering tensions between United States and Iran. Japan's Nikkei fell 0.53%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng dropped 0.66%, China's Shanghai Composite declined 0.47% and South Korea's Kospi tumbled 1.9%, as per latest reports.
Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) sold shares worth ₹3,062.27 crore on Monday while domestic institutional investors bought stocks worth ₹2,171.70 crore, as per NSE data. The FIIs have bought shares worth ₹4,572.89 crore so far in July (till 10 July 2026), according to Business Standard, contrasting sharply with their significant cash sales of ₹49,028.63 crore in June, ₹55,963.33 crore in May, and ₹70,135.46 crore in April. This represents a significant shift in foreign investment patterns, with FIIs returning to net buying after months of substantial outflows. Additionally, Mutual fund Systematic Investment Plan (SIP) contributions reached a three-month high of ₹317.8 billion in June 2026, according to the latest data released by the Association of Mutual Funds in India (AMFI), reflecting a steady 2.7% month-on-month increase compared to ₹309.5 billion in May 2026. However, experts are also tracking FPI movement, which on Monday again turned sellers after continuous buying in recent times, as noted by The Hindu BusinessLine, keeping marketmen anxious about foreign investment patterns.
Asian markets traded lower on Tuesday as rising oil prices amid the US-Iran war weighed on sentiment, with Japan's Nikkei 225 falling 0.53%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng dropping 0.66%, China's Shanghai Composite declining 0.47% and South Korea's Kospi tumbling 1.9%. The US stock market ended lower overnight as the latest escalation of the Middle East war sent oil prices jumping and dampened risk appetite, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 0.26%, the S&P 500 declining 0.8% and tech-heavy Nasdaq dropping 1.55%. Nvidia stock price plunged 3.52%, AMD shares tanked 4.21%, Broadcom shares shed 3.98%, Intel share price slipped 6.12%, Micron Technology stock price dropped 4.32%, Tesla stock price cracked 3.19%, and SpaceX shares slipped 4.24%, according to Livemint. Technology stocks, export-oriented companies, and other risk-sensitive sectors are leading the decline as investors shift towards safe-haven assets amid rising geopolitical uncertainty, Ponmudi R noted. Indian markets demonstrated resilience despite challenging global cues, reflecting continued support from domestic fundamentals. Indian equities are expected to maintain a gradual uptrend, with the Q1FY27 earnings season likely to be the key catalyst for sectoral and stock-specific action limiting downside. Volatility, however, is likely to remain elevated amid evolving geopolitical developments in West Asia.
The US President Donald Trump has formally notified lawmakers that the country is once again engaged in military action against Iran, allowing the administration to continue operations for up to 60 days without congressional approval, as reported by Livemint. Meanwhile, Iran-backed Houthi group in Yemen claimed responsibility for missile and drone attacks targeting Saudi Arabia's Abha Airport, raising concerns over a broader regional conflict. The US expanded strikes on Iran according to Iran state media reports, with the latest wave of attacks targeting a wider range of locations across southern and western Iran than previous strikes, as claimed by Eskan News' Telegram channel. According to a report by Al Jazeera, US launched a new wave of strikes on Iran targeting what it says is Tehran's ability to threaten shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Trump has declared the waterway open, while Iran insists it is closed, leading to a further escalation of attacks. Qatar said that shrapnel from Iranian attacks wounded three people, including a child, while Kuwait said Iranian attacks hit three border centres and an offshore drilling platform, wounding one person and causing material damage, as reported by Al Jazeera. Crude oil prices have climbed above the $85 per barrel mark, with Brent crude futures surging 2.83% to hit an intraday high of $85.66 per barrel, with Brent crude futures climbing 2% to $84.98 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude advanced 2.1% to $79.79 per barrel. Brent had already surged 9.6% in the previous session, marking its biggest single-day gain since May 2020. This escalation has driven US two-year treasury yield to its highest level in more than 16 months at 4.273%, with the 10-year yield adding 4.9 basis points to 4.618% as speculation grows that the Federal Reserve will tighten policy to keep inflationary pressure in check.
India's economic landscape shows mixed signals with retail inflation accelerating to 4.38% in June from 3.93% in May, driven primarily by higher food prices and coming in above the 4.2% median estimate of economists surveyed by Mint. Sanjay Kumar, CEO & MD, Rassense, on CPI data for June 2026, said the latest inflation of 4.38% is a timely reminder that price pressures, especially in food and essential services, remain real for Indian households. While the headline number is still within the RBI's tolerance band, sustained inflation at these levels reinforces the importance of responsible pricing, an agile supply chain, and tech-led productivity gains. Ajit Mishra, Senior Vice President, Research at Religare Broking, noted that the Nifty 50 continues to witness buying interest on declines near the 24,000 mark, indicating that the broader undertone remains positive despite heightened volatility. However, the index is still facing resistance in the 24,300–24,400 zone, and a decisive breakout above this band is required to extend the ongoing recovery towards the 24,600 mark and beyond. On the downside, the 24,000–23,800 zone is expected to provide immediate support. For the Bank Nifty, Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, believes the Bank Nifty continues to exhibit a cautiously positive technical structure despite recent volatility, with the 58,200–58,300 zone acting as immediate resistance and a sustained breakout above this band required to confirm the continuation of the ongoing recovery. Hitesh Rathi, Technical Analyst - Equity & Derivatives, Angel One, said, "Despite the sluggish and lacklustre price action in the frontline indices, the broader market continues to buzz with strong stock-specific moves. The breakouts witnessed in the NIFTY MIDCAP 50 and NIFTY SMALLCAP 50 indices, both representative of the broader market, are a testament to the continued outperformance of the broader market over the frontline indices."
