Indian equity markets ended lower for the second consecutive session on Friday, with NIFTY50 settling at 23,643.50, down 46.10 points or 0.19%, after touching an intraday high of 23,839.30 before heavy selling dragged it lower. The BSE Sensex declined 160.73 points or 0.21% to close at 75,237.99. According to The Hindu BusinessLine, the historic slide in the rupee and surging crude oil prices overshadowed a brief midday rally on Dalal Street, with broader markets faring worse as Nifty Midcap 100 fell 0.45% and Smallcap 100 declined 0.61%. On a weekly basis, the Nifty lost 0.72% while the Sensex shed 0.95%, reflecting widespread caution among investors. The Nifty oscillated in a broad 734-point range as the index touched a high of 23,997.45 and a low of 23,262.55, with India VIX rising 11.58% to 18.79 on a weekly basis, reflecting growing nervousness among market participants. As per NDTV Profit, this week is crucial as several heavyweights across key sectors report their numbers, with investors dissecting earnings from major conglomerates, FMCG giants, energy majors, and defense PSUs including Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), ITC, Bharat Electronics Limited (BEL), and Grasim.
The Indian rupee breached the 96 mark against the US dollar for the first time in history, touching a record low of 96.06, a development that rattled investor confidence on multiple fronts. As per The Hindu BusinessLine, Dr Ravi Singh, Chief Research Officer at Master Capital Services, explained that "the sharp fall in the Indian rupee is mainly being driven by a mix of global uncertainty and rising crude oil prices." He noted that "sustained currency weakness can keep volatility elevated and may slow foreign investor participation in the near term." The latest reports indicate that the rupee weakened further to ~₹95.97/$ amid persistent global uncertainty, with rising crude oil prices, persistent FII outflows and widening external deficits continuing to pressure the currency amid geopolitical tensions. The government's decision to hike retail petrol and diesel prices by approximately ₹3 per litre — the first such revision in nearly four years further stoked inflation fears and weighed on crude-sensitive sectors like aviation, paints, and logistics. According to NDTV Profit, crude at these elevated levels is a direct hit to the current-account deficit, the rupee (already testing 96 territory), and corporate margins across refining, aviation, and logistics.
Crude oil prices rose above $107 per barrel, with Brent crude oil remaining firm above $106 a barrel, trading above ₹10,000 per barrel domestically. According to The Hindu BusinessLine, the government's decision to hike retail petrol and diesel prices by approximately ₹3 per litre — the first such revision in nearly four years further stoked inflation fears and weighed on crude-sensitive sectors like aviation, paints, and logistics. Adding to the day's turbulence, silver plunged by more than 6% and gold fell by nearly 2% in domestic markets, with the stronger dollar prompting aggressive profit-booking in bullion after a tariff-driven rally. The latest developments show comments from Donald Trump on potential US-China oil trade and easing Strait of Hormuz concerns supported gains in global energy markets, contributing to the sustained pressure on commodity prices. Oil prices surged for a third straight session after Trump's latest threat to Iran to accept a deal that could bring an end to weeks of conflict and restore traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, with Brent crude advancing above $110 a barrel after gaining nearly 8% last week, while West Texas Intermediate approached $107. As per NDTV Profit, despite slight declines recently, prices have been observed hovering near $111 a barrel, keeping inflationary pressures front and centre for import-heavy economies.
Sectorally, Nifty Realty, Metal, PSU Bank, and Oil & Gas indices bore the brunt of the selloff, while IT and Media were the standout gainers. As reported by The Hindu BusinessLine, a firm overnight Nasdaq and the rupee's slide — which acts as an earnings tailwind for dollar-billing companies — triggered institutional buying in large-cap technology names. DRREDDY and TMPV were among the top Nifty gainers, while Hindalco and Eternal were the notable losers. The 1,461 shares were advancing while 1,302 were declining on the NSE, resulting in neutral overall market breadth, with 1,461 shares advancing while 1,302 were declining on the NSE. According to NDTV Profit, a sharp correction last week - Nifty Realty down over 8%, IT and Auto also taking hits - means the benchmark indices are likely to open the week on the defensive. However, the broader markets were relatively resilient, with only one day seeing over 1,000 stocks decline by over 3%. According to The Economic Times, the Nifty Metal and Infrastructure Index has slipped into the weakening quadrant, while the PSU bank index is also inside the weakening quadrant. However, Realty and FMCG Index are inside the improving quadrant, with Resistance levels for Nifty likely to come in at 23,850 and 24,000, while supports are seen at 23,350 and 23,150.
The NIFTY needs to hold above Thursday's high of 23,777 for the recovery to continue, with a sustained move above that level potentially pushing the index towards the 50-day moving average near 23,836. According to The Economic Times, the index remains structurally weak below key moving averages, with support at 23,200–23,000 and resistance near 24,300–24,500. The weekly RSI stands at 41.46 and remains below the neutral 50 mark, indicating weakening momentum, while weekly MACD remains below its signal line and stays in negative territory. The Bollinger Bands have started expanding again after a brief contraction phase, suggesting the possibility of increased directional volatility in the sessions ahead. As per The Economic Times, the coming week is likely to begin on a cautious note with volatility expected to remain elevated, with resistance levels for Nifty at 23,850 and 24,000, while supports are seen at 23,350 and 23,150. Given the current technical setup, market participants should continue to adopt a cautious and highly selective approach, with fresh aggressive buying should be avoided until the index shows evidence of sustained strength above the immediate resistance zone. According to NDTV Profit, over the next six days, market direction will likely be dictated by a tug-of-war between persistent macro anxieties of oil spikes and supply chain scrambles born out of the Middle East conflict, and a relentless wave of corporate earnings and industrial data.
