HDFC Bank stock is testing its 100-month moving average (100-MMA) for the first time in its 30-year history, according to technical analyst Drumil Vithlani from Tiny Epic. The stock has plunged nearly 27% to a low of ₹707 in August from levels of ₹967 at the start of the year, significantly outperforming the Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty which are down 8% and 3.7% respectively. On Monday, the stock gained 2.7% to a high of ₹739.50 before paring gains to trade 0.8% higher at ₹726 as of 10:40 AM. Despite the recent gains, the stock stands on the verge of logging its sixth monthly loss out of eight calendar months in 2026.
According to Drumil Vithlani's analysis, the stock is trading near its 100-MMA of ₹686, which represents an eight-year mean of price. The analyst notes that through the 2020 crash and post-merger drawdown, the stock always held above this line, and reaching it now marks a reset of the long-term trend rather than a routine dip. The ₹700-mark has emerged as the key support level to watch, with the 100-MMA lining up with the ₹700-730 base and the 52-week-low zone. As long as the stock holds above this level, the base remains intact for accumulation on strength, though a decisive break below would shift the structure lower.
The stock has been trading below its 20-MMA for the last seven months since February 2026, and below both its 20- and 50-MMAs since March 2026 for the last six months - its longest streak since April 2009. Historical charts show the stock traded below both these averages for three months from January 2009 to March 2009. The technical breakdown cascaded in sequence, with the daily 200-day moving average breaking first in January 2026, followed by the monthly 20- and 50-MMAs, and now the deepest long-term average is under test. The 200-DMA still slopes down in the mid-800s, roughly 15% overhead, indicating the structure remains lower-high, lower-low until price reclaims it.
Anand James from Geojit Investments considers the current gains a mere pullback from the support zone, noting that while select key momentum oscillators show encouraging signs, the price action remains limited. The analyst believes the stock is likely to remain tepid as long as it trades below ₹745, with the ₹700-mark on the downside remaining the major support. According to James, the recent bounce with stochastic turning up from oversold represents a first-touch reflex but is counter-trend, as the 200-DMA still slopes down in the mid-800s. The structure stays lower-high, lower-low until price reclaims it, with the recent technical breakdown representing a significant shift in the bank's long-term trend trajectory.
