Indian markets are likely to open higher on Thursday amid positive global cues, as crude oil prices slumped below $110, providing significant relief to the market. According to The Hindu BusinessLine, Gift Nifty is trading at 24,550, signaling a gain of 100 points from previous levels. This represents a notable improvement from Wednesday's session where the index opened flat at 24,460 level. The previous session saw the Nifty 50 index skyrocket 298 points and close at 24,330, while the BSE Sensex surged 940 points and closed at 77,958. The Bank Nifty index zoomed 1,434 points and closed at 55,981, with the latest Gift Nifty data indicating stronger opening momentum compared to Wednesday's cautious start.
Global sentiment has strengthened amid growing expectations of potential de-escalation in Middle East tensions, as reported by The Hindu BusinessLine. Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research at Julius Baer, noted that "The twists and turns continue. The United States called off safeguarding of trade through Hormuz again, keeping uncertainty high, and transits are down to a trickle for the time being. Oil prices dropped below $110 despite the persistent gridlock, possibly for the simple fact that these latest twists triggered some hostilities but not a pronounced escalation." Politics aside, the oil market has moved past the initial shock reaction and has settled in a regime of deficit absorption by inventory draws. There is breathing room to deal with the supply shock beyond summer. Our views are unchanged; the current crisis should follow the historic pattern of a short-lived but intense price shock. Looking much further ahead, some years from now, the Strait of Hormuz very likely will have lost some of its strategic importance and economic threat, given the lasting shifts that already occurred in response to the conflict." Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, added that "Indications from Donald Trump that the U.S. has paused its more assertive stance around the Strait of Hormuz, alongside expectations of Iran's response to a U.S. proposal aimed at resolving the conflict, have supported a recovery in risk appetite. This has translated into a relief rally across global equities, with Indian markets also benefiting from the improved tone." Global stocks, led by the Nikkei, Singapore, Hong Kong, and Taiwan, are sharply higher, with Indian markets also benefiting from the improved global tone.
Vaishali Parekh, Vice President — Technical Research at Prabhudas Lilladher, believes the Dalal Street bias has improved, but the Nifty 50 index needs to cross the 24,800 hurdle for strengthening bulls' conviction. As reported by Live Mint, Parekh noted that the index witnessed a strong move in the second half, racing from 24,000 to close above the tough resistance hurdle of the 24,300 zone on positive Middle East cease-fire cues. The rally was broad-based, with banking, financials, and realty leading, while energy and FMCG remained relatively subdued. Multiple technical analysts now confirm this positive momentum, with HDFC Securities noting that Nifty 50 formed a positive hammer-like candlestick pattern and has broken above the triangle pattern, indicating strong buying interest at lower levels.
Despite the positive opening signals, derivative trading still suggests caution with PCR near 0.61 indicating a cautious-to-bearish undertone. As reported by The Hindu BusinessLine, aggressive call writing at 24,200–24,300 continues to cap upside, while the Put base at 24,000–23,800 reinforces support. The India VIX, which has been sustaining near 18, indicates a controlled volatility environment, supporting range-bound price action rather than trending moves. This contrasts with Wednesday's session where significant call writing was observed at the 24,500 and 24,600 strikes, while put writing was concentrated at the 24,200 and 24,100 levels. The derivatives market continues to signal a more measured approach compared to the previous session's more aggressive positioning.
Vaishali Parekh recommended three buy-or-sell stocks for Thursday trading. As reported by Live Mint, the recommendations include Juniper Hotels at ₹212 with target ₹220 and stop loss ₹208, Safari Industries at ₹1468 with target ₹1550 and stop loss ₹1445, and Supreme Industries at ₹3714 with target ₹3820 and stop loss ₹3650. The analyst noted that the Nifty 50 would need to sustain above the important support zone of 23,800 level and can expect higher targets of 24,800 and 25,000 levels in coming days. HDFC Securities suggests that a sustainable move above 24,300 resistance could open further upside towards 24,600 - 24,800 levels in the near term, with immediate support placed at 24,200. ICICI Prudential Alternates noted that while India may continue to be impacted by global volatility, it remains constructive on equities given the favourable domestic macro indicators, with the environment likely to become more differentiated, making bottom-up stock selection increasingly critical.
