The Indian stock market benchmark indices are set to open lower on Thursday, April 30, as GIFT Nifty futures indicate a weak session ahead, falling 50 points to 24,132 points amid mixed global cues. According to Upstox, this represents a significant deterioration from Wednesday's session when Gift Nifty was trading around 24,165 level, a discount of nearly 86 points from the Nifty futures' previous close. The previous session saw the Sensex jump 609.45 points, or 0.79%, to close at 77,496.36, while the Nifty 50 settled 181.95 points, or 0.76%, higher at 24,177.65 before the overnight decline. The NIFTY50 bounced back from the previous day's lows to reclaim the key psychological level of 24,000 on Wednesday, but failed to close above the 50 EMA of 24,195, which remains a near-term resistance level.
Asian markets traded mostly lower on Thursday, April 30, as investors remained cautious with benchmark Brent crude oil surging to $120 per barrel levels, extending weekly gains to approximately 12%. Asia Dow was down 0.77% or 44.71 points to 5,797 points, while Japan's Nikkei 225 declined 0.88% or 523 points to 59,396.82 points. Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 0.70% or 180 points to 25,928 points, though China's Shanghai Composite bucked the trend, trading 0.12% higher at 4,112.13 points. According to Upstox, the US markets saw major swings during extended trading hours after megacap companies announced quarterly earnings on Wednesday. Shares of Alphabet, Amazon and Microsoft jumped up to 7%, while Meta shares slid nearly 7% in extended trading hours. The S&P 500 closed 0.04% lower at 7,135.95 points, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.04% to 24,673.24 points, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average losing 0.57%, closing at 48,861.81.
Brent crude oil prices steadied above $110 per barrel, extending their weekly gains to approximately 12%, as reported by Upstox. The standoff between the US and Iran has led to a major blockade of crude oil exports from the region, contributing to sustained elevation in global energy prices. Foreign institutional investors continued their selling streak on Wednesday, offloading ₹2,468.42 crore worth of assets from the capital market segment across exchanges, as reported by Upstox. However, domestic investors provided strong support by purchasing ₹2,262.17 crore worth of assets, helping to offset the foreign selling pressure. The positive domestic buying helped benchmark indices close higher despite consistent foreign investor outflows, though broader investor sentiment remains cautious due to the combination of weak Asian market opening, consistent FII selling, and rising crude oil prices. Sentiment remains largely influenced by uncertainty around US-Iran negotiations, which have kept crude prices elevated, said Ajit Mishra, Senior Vice President (Research) at Religare Broking.
The US Federal Reserve's Jerome Powell-led 12-member FOMC decided to keep key interest rates unchanged in the range of 3.50-3.75% as inflation concerns remain elevated in the market. According to Upstox, the committee highlighted that inflationary concerns for the US economy remain elevated due to the rise in global energy prices, with the FOMC noting that developments in the Middle East are contributing to high uncertainty about the economic outlook. The committee emphasized its attentiveness to risks to both sides of its dual mandate, reflecting the challenging economic environment facing policymakers.
The NIFTY50 chart setup shows the index made an intraday high of 24,334 but closed at 24,177 as selling pressure emerged at higher levels, as reported by Upstox. The 50 EMA at 24,195 remains a crucial resistance level, while the 20 EMA level serves as crucial support. The open interest data for the coming weekly expiry on May 5 suggests a range-bound trade between 24,000 and 24,500, with the 24,500 calls holding the highest open interest indicating crucial resistance and 24,000 puts holding the highest open interest as strong downside support. Anand James, Chief Market Strategist at Geojit Investments, said the Nifty showed signs of recovery despite initial weakness. "Subsequent hourly candles indicate buying interest at lower levels, suggesting a possible move towards the 24,350–24,470 range. However, failure to hold above 24,050 may keep downside risks towards 23,500 intact," he said.
