A proposed deal between Iran and Oman to end five months of war would give Tehran control over ships entering the Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz, marking one of the biggest concessions yet to Iran. According to Reuters, a senior Iranian source and two regional officials confirmed that Iran would have authority over both inward and outward journeys through the strait, with Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi stating that commercial ships will pass through Iranian territorial waters on both inbound and outbound legs. The deal represents a major shift in regional power dynamics, as before the war, the strait was freely open to all ships with no fees. Iran is seeking fees of between 5% and 7% of cargo prices, while Oman is discussing fees of around 3%, with Washington wanting no fees at all. Gulf negotiators are insisting that regional countries supervise inspections of ships, and any payment of fees should be voluntary. However, as reported by Reuters, Iran said it was nearing a final agreement with Oman on new shipping lanes through the Strait of Hormuz, but indicated that additional conditions involving the United States would need to be addressed before the strategically important waterway could fully reopen. Shipping through the waterway remained at a trickle on Monday, highlighting the ongoing uncertainty over normal traffic resumption.
Bitcoin rose 0.54% to $65,209 and ether gained 0.86% to $1,925 as reports that Iran may strike a deal with Oman to reopen the Strait of Hormuz lifted sentiment across risk assets. According to CoinDesk, Nasdaq 100 index futures gained 0.45% since midnight, buoyed by speculation from the Middle East that Iran is ready to strike a deal with Oman to open the Strait of Hormuz. The altcoin market is cautiously optimistic but not yet moving, with the altcoin season indicator sitting at 37/100 and capital still concentrated in bitcoin, suggesting meaningful rotation into smaller tokens is contingent on BTC breaking out of its current range. Pump.fun (PUMP) led the altcoin market with a 5.39% gain, while liquidations fell 32% to just $85 million, pointing to a market that is stabilizing rather than chasing momentum. Monero (XMR) has surged 5% over the past 24 hours, briefly topping $400 for the first time since June 12, with futures open interest jumping 6% alongside the price gains.
European shares were broadly flat on Monday as uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz kept oil prices elevated, with the pan-European STOXX 600 remaining flat at 660.12 points after gaining 1.7% last week and closing at a record high on Friday. According to Reuters, the rally was supported by expectations that weaker U.S. labour-market data could strengthen the case for lower borrowing costs, while solid corporate earnings in Europe and the United States also helped underpin investor sentiment. Energy and technology stocks gained, with energy stocks rising 0.5% and Brent crude futures gaining 0.6% to $83.98 a barrel, while technology stocks were the strongest performers, rising 0.7% as investors assessed the potential impact of prolonged disruptions to crude shipments. However, media stocks fell 0.7%, weighing on the broader market. Euro zone employment data will be closely watched for signs of resilience in the regional economy, while U.S. consumer price figures are expected to provide fresh clues about the Federal Reserve's interest-rate path.
US markets ended mixed on Wednesday as investor optimism that the US and Iran might be close to coming to an agreement to allow vessels to freely transit the critical Hormuz strait dimmed over the weekend after Iran denied engaging in any direct negotiations with the US around opening the waterway. As reported by Business Standard, S&P 500 futures edged lower early Monday amid growing doubts that the US and Iran will soon strike a deal, with S&P 500 futures flat while Nasdaq-100 futures added 0.2%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures shed 58 points (0.11%). WTI crude oil rose 1% to just above $79 a barrel on Sunday, reflecting the mounting geopolitical tensions. Fed funds futures traders now price in a roughly 44% likelihood that the central bank raises rates at its September meeting, down from a 67% reading seen a week prior, according to CME's FedWatch tool.
Oil prices continued their upward trajectory with WTI crude oil rising 1% to just above $79 a barrel on Sunday, reflecting mounting geopolitical tensions as Iran denied engaging in direct negotiations with the US around opening the Strait of Hormuz. The latest price movement came despite earlier hopes that an interim deal between the US and Iran could reopen the critical waterway. Brent crude futures gained 0.6% to $83.98 a barrel on Monday, with Dutch gas for August falling 6.3% to €52.43 per megawatt hour, while the equivalent British contract dropped 6.7% to 127.3p per therm, as energy supply from the Gulf is likely to remain constrained for several months. Woodside shed 3.6% to close at $31.8 and Santos down 2% to close at $7.60, leading the energy sector to a 2.2% loss as oil prices continue to slide.
