Vote counting for assembly elections across West Bengal, Assam, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and Puducherry begins today at 8 am, with early trends expected within the first two hours and clearer leads likely by late morning. According to The Economic Times, exit polls suggest the BJP could emerge as the single largest force in West Bengal with around 159 seats, above the majority mark of 148, while the TMC is projected near 127 seats. The DMK-led alliance is expected to retain Tamil Nadu with around 128 seats, and Kerala could see the Congress-led UDF cross the majority mark. As reported by The Economic Times, analysts say investors should look beyond political headlines and focus on broader macro signals before taking aggressive positions. Siddhartha Khemka of Motilal Oswal noted that while global headwinds continue to weigh on sentiment, supportive domestic cues including the ongoing earnings season and steady domestic inflows are providing cushion on the downside.
Indian equities head into the event on weak footing, with the Nifty losing 0.73% last week and the Sensex slipping nearly 1% amid elevated crude prices, foreign selling and geopolitical uncertainty. According to The Economic Times, Paresh Bhagat, Chairman of Mangal Keshav Financial Services, expects contained volatility with Nifty potentially moving around 1% to 1.5% depending on whether final results align with or differ from exit polls. Nitant Darekar of Bonanza advised that election result days often create headline volatility but not necessarily durable trends, suggesting traders should avoid chasing sharp opening moves as these often reverse after the first hour. Vinod Nair of Geojit Investments noted that while markets remain hopeful for resolution, the tunnel looks lengthy, with the market likely to respond to daily noise until clarity is reached.
Crude oil remains the biggest risk with Brent crude trading above $113 per barrel amid the Iran conflict and shipping concerns around the Strait of Hormuz, as reported by The Economic Times. Hariprasad K of Livelong Wealth said crude remains "the single most critical macro variable" for Indian markets. Jateen Trivedi of LKP Securities noted that markets will watch state election outcomes and developments around US-Iran ceasefire talks, which remain key triggers for sentiment and crude direction. VK Vijayakumar of Geojit Investments highlighted that Japan, South Korea and Taiwan are attracting significant inflows due to AI trade, while India faces outflows from energy crisis and currency depreciation. Foreign fund flows continue to pressure markets, with FIIs selling ₹70,100 crore worth of Indian equities in April, marking their tenth straight month of selling. In calendar 2026, foreign investors have already pulled nearly ₹2.4 lakh crore from Indian equities.
The Nifty closed Friday at 23,997, just below the key 24,000 mark, with analysts saying 23,900-23,850 remains immediate support and 24,200–24,300 is the first resistance zone. According to The Economic Times, a breakout above 24,300 could trigger short covering, while the index below 23,900 may invite fresh selling. Technical analysis suggests the Nifty 50 needs to break the recent week's range of 23,800–24,350 in the coming week, as direction will be set once the index decisively breaks either side of this range. The India VIX remained in the previous week's range, falling 6.35% during the recent week to 18.46, though it needs to fall and sustain below 15 level to provide comfort for bulls and stabilise the markets. The Nifty 50 rose 100 points (0.42%) to 23,998 and BSE Sensex gained 249 points (0.33%) to 76,913 in the truncated week ended April 30, with broader markets outperforming benchmark indices.
